Good Morning All!
For your Thurday afternoon, we are looking at a mostly cloudy sky with highs reaching into the middle 30s. Winds will be out of the East at 5-10 mph. Tonight, our winter weather storm looks to move in. Temperatures drop off into the middle and upper 20s. We will be mostly cloudy with rain changing over to a wintry mix and eventually snow. If you were wishing for a White Christmas, you will see it granted! Details below..
Travel plans in the next few days? Here's a look ahead..
Things still look a little tricky once we hit Thursday night into Friday. I have been keeping my eye on the winter weather system that will be pushing into the area overnight. The event will start off at a rain event sometime around midnight, turning into a freezing rain/sleet event during the overnight hours Thursday. This will cause icy conditions overnight. This is going to make for SLICK roadways Thursday night into Friday morning.
On top of that, the latest weather discussion and models are showing that we will see this change over to a snow event by early Friday morning, around 3am. We will see accumulation, latest model runs show that we will see 2-4" accumulate once all is said and done.
If you live off to the Southwest, around the Lake of the Ozarks or plan on traveling there, you will be seeing more of a wintry mix. This will make for messy roadways. If you must travel late on Thursday evening or Friday morning, allow for extra time, slow down, and take it easy out on those roads.
Any changes that will come up, make sure you join Dave Schmidt for the latest forecast toinght on KOMU 8 News at 5,6, 9 & 10. I will be back in the morning tomorrow updating you on the latest weather conditions and what to expect on those roadways as well starting at 4:30.
For the most up-to-date information be sure and check out our website at KOMU.COM for the latest on the Winter Weather situation. The Live Doppler 8 First Alert Weather team will continue to bring you the most accurate information and update you when more information becomes available to keep you and your family safe this Holiday.
Have a safe and Happy Holiday!
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Traveling for the Thanksgiving Holiday?
Today is a big travel day for a lot of people and that will be the focus for this blog on your Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region throughout the day as a warm front lifts north out of Arkansas. A cold front moves through the region tonight and QUICKLY drops temperatures into the 20s for overnight lows. In some locations (mainly along I-44), some rain could switch over to a rain/snow/sleet mix before coming to an end on Thursday morning. With surface temperatures above freezing, accumulations will not be an issue.
Weather Threats for Wednesday:
SEVERE WEATHER - There will be a slight risk for severe weather across the region today as a strong low pressure system and trailing cold front move through. The best opportunity for severe weather will be found across SOUTHERN MISSOURI this afternoon into this evening. The main severe weather risks include DAMAGING WINDS and SMALL HAIL. Initially, there will be a low threat for isolated tornadoes, but that threat is low at this time. MID-MISSOURI could see a few scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, but an organized severe outbreak for the KOMU viewing area remains LOW at this time.
WINTER WEATHER - As mentioned above, there will be a LIMITED threat for some frozen precipitation tonight as a strong cold front sweeps through the region. If the precipitation can hang around long enough, there could be a switchover from rain to light freezing rain or sleet (possibly some snow, too...) late tonight and early on Thursday morning. The best location for this to occur would be along and south of I-44, although, winter-type precipitation could occur as far north as US 24. Regardless, surface temperatures remain warm, so accumulations aren't going to be an issue (except for some grassy surfaces).
**For up-to-date weather information, hourly forecasts for your hometown, and a detailed look at precipitation types using Live Doppler 8 First Alert Radar, please visit Live Doppler 8 Interactive Radar **
Weather Threats for Wednesday:
SEVERE WEATHER - There will be a slight risk for severe weather across the region today as a strong low pressure system and trailing cold front move through. The best opportunity for severe weather will be found across SOUTHERN MISSOURI this afternoon into this evening. The main severe weather risks include DAMAGING WINDS and SMALL HAIL. Initially, there will be a low threat for isolated tornadoes, but that threat is low at this time. MID-MISSOURI could see a few scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, but an organized severe outbreak for the KOMU viewing area remains LOW at this time.
WINTER WEATHER - As mentioned above, there will be a LIMITED threat for some frozen precipitation tonight as a strong cold front sweeps through the region. If the precipitation can hang around long enough, there could be a switchover from rain to light freezing rain or sleet (possibly some snow, too...) late tonight and early on Thursday morning. The best location for this to occur would be along and south of I-44, although, winter-type precipitation could occur as far north as US 24. Regardless, surface temperatures remain warm, so accumulations aren't going to be an issue (except for some grassy surfaces).
**For up-to-date weather information, hourly forecasts for your hometown, and a detailed look at precipitation types using Live Doppler 8 First Alert Radar, please visit Live Doppler 8 Interactive Radar **
Thursday, November 4, 2010
A Look Ahead to November
So now that we have closed out the month of October and moved on into November, it is time to take a look at the Climate Prediction Center's outlook for precipitation and temperatures for November. You can take a look for yourself as I go through the predictions at http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/.
After seeing an above average month temperature wise and below average precipitation wise for October, the CPC is expecting more of the same for the month of November. Note that the majority of the Central United States looks to be above average temperature wise. The Pacific Northwest looks to be above average precipitation wise, while the majority of the Southern states on into the Central Midwest looks to be dry.
Why is this? Compared to last year, it seems we are completely opposite of where we were. Well a big part of this has to do with El Nino/La Nina. Last year we were in an El Nino phase, this year we are moving into a La Nina phase. This will cool the waters in the Eastern Pacific and warm the waters in the Western Pacific. The predictions for November follow the pattern as seen below in the diagrams.
After seeing an above average month temperature wise and below average precipitation wise for October, the CPC is expecting more of the same for the month of November. Note that the majority of the Central United States looks to be above average temperature wise. The Pacific Northwest looks to be above average precipitation wise, while the majority of the Southern states on into the Central Midwest looks to be dry.
Why is this? Compared to last year, it seems we are completely opposite of where we were. Well a big part of this has to do with El Nino/La Nina. Last year we were in an El Nino phase, this year we are moving into a La Nina phase. This will cool the waters in the Eastern Pacific and warm the waters in the Western Pacific. The predictions for November follow the pattern as seen below in the diagrams.
Notice for La Nina, conditions will be cool and wet in the PAC Northwest and warm and dry in the South/Central United States. This is the typical pattern we see during these conditions. We shall see if this proves to be true for the upcoming month.
Stay tuned for my next blog. I will be looking closely at what we can expect for the winter months ahead. There seems to be some disagreement between the Farmers Almanac, the CPC, and my grad school professors so I will dissect what I know and give you the information to make your own conclusions and weather guesses!
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Homecoming Weekend Weather
Alright, whether you want to hear this or not, this is what the latest model runs are saying. I know we have been talking about this Low pressure system moving in from the Southwest. Like you, I have been keeping my fingers crossed, hoping and wishing that it would just go away. Well, it hasn't gone away and this is my latest prediction.
At this point in time, if you are planning to head to MU's campus on Friday night for House Decs, it looks to be dry. I don't think we will see any rain showers for the evening. But temperatures are going to drop. We will most likely fall into the lower 60s and upper 50s. So, you will probably want to grab a jacket, fleece, or hoodie if you will be out and about on Friday night.
For those of you heading to ESPN's Game Day coverage, here is what I have for you. The showers and thunderstorms will start to build in during the early morning hours on Saturday. They appear to start around 3am and linger until about 9/10 am. Bring your rain gear for the morning hours and dress in layers. Cool weather with rain is never a good combination!
It appears that we will get a break from the rain during the middle of the day. So if you planned on coming out for the parade that will be starting at noon, I think we should be dry during this time. Tailgates during the afternoon are look fairly dry as well but then as the atmosphere recharges, we will not be out of the woods just yet.
The low level jet is going to be streaming in lots of moisture and since we will be in the warm sector during the day, that will allow for the re-development of showers and thunderstorms within the unstable atmosphere. Temperatures will reach into the 70s.
As far as game time is concerned, I think we should just be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. It looks like we will see some more showers and thunderstorms during the early into late evening hours, just in time for kickoff. Have your rain gear with you because this rain will be scattered about in nature. Not everyone is going to get soaked, it will not be a complete wash out.
That is what things look like at this point in time. I will try to update this blog tomorrow when we have more information that is even more precise than what I have to work with today. Just know if I had any real power over the weather, I would have made this forecast perfect for this weekend.. unfortunately I don't.
At this point in time, if you are planning to head to MU's campus on Friday night for House Decs, it looks to be dry. I don't think we will see any rain showers for the evening. But temperatures are going to drop. We will most likely fall into the lower 60s and upper 50s. So, you will probably want to grab a jacket, fleece, or hoodie if you will be out and about on Friday night.
For those of you heading to ESPN's Game Day coverage, here is what I have for you. The showers and thunderstorms will start to build in during the early morning hours on Saturday. They appear to start around 3am and linger until about 9/10 am. Bring your rain gear for the morning hours and dress in layers. Cool weather with rain is never a good combination!
It appears that we will get a break from the rain during the middle of the day. So if you planned on coming out for the parade that will be starting at noon, I think we should be dry during this time. Tailgates during the afternoon are look fairly dry as well but then as the atmosphere recharges, we will not be out of the woods just yet.
The low level jet is going to be streaming in lots of moisture and since we will be in the warm sector during the day, that will allow for the re-development of showers and thunderstorms within the unstable atmosphere. Temperatures will reach into the 70s.
As far as game time is concerned, I think we should just be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. It looks like we will see some more showers and thunderstorms during the early into late evening hours, just in time for kickoff. Have your rain gear with you because this rain will be scattered about in nature. Not everyone is going to get soaked, it will not be a complete wash out.
That is what things look like at this point in time. I will try to update this blog tomorrow when we have more information that is even more precise than what I have to work with today. Just know if I had any real power over the weather, I would have made this forecast perfect for this weekend.. unfortunately I don't.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Almost Halfway Through October
So far this month, it looks like the Climate Prediction Center's outlook for the month of October has been fairly accurate. For a two week period, the skies were bright blue and clear of any cloud cover. We saw above average temperatures during this time frame as well. We had a blocking High centered over the Midwest. This did not allow for any weather systems to move into the area which is why we were able to enjoy the beautiful weather for such a long period of time.
A stronger Low finally moved in from the West and was able to push the High off to the East and finally break the blocking pattern. It allowed for a couple of shortwaves to move through. This brought us cloud cover and some light precipitation. As the low continues to spiral over the top of us we will continue to see the clouds and chances for some light rain. This Low will finally start to push off further to the East and another High will move on in.
The jetstream will also move and take a major dip off closer to the Northeastern US. This will bring cooler temperatures to that area, but for us a ridge will be building in. This will allow our temperatures to warm up above average for this time of the year yet again as we head towards the weekend. For a look at the extended forecast, check out our website at http://www.komu.com/
A stronger Low finally moved in from the West and was able to push the High off to the East and finally break the blocking pattern. It allowed for a couple of shortwaves to move through. This brought us cloud cover and some light precipitation. As the low continues to spiral over the top of us we will continue to see the clouds and chances for some light rain. This Low will finally start to push off further to the East and another High will move on in.
The jetstream will also move and take a major dip off closer to the Northeastern US. This will bring cooler temperatures to that area, but for us a ridge will be building in. This will allow our temperatures to warm up above average for this time of the year yet again as we head towards the weekend. For a look at the extended forecast, check out our website at http://www.komu.com/
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Fall Has Arrived!
This past week, we have had some of the nicest weather. Not a whole lot to complain about here. If you have noticed in the past couple of weeks we have been experiencing several cold fronts moving through the Midwest. They don't seem to end either. They just keep coming one after another after another. Over the past few years of working at KOMU, I have learned that this is one of the tell tale signs that fall is officially here to stay and the summer weather is over. The month of September will end with an average month temperature wise with well above average precipitation (3.65" above normal).
Friday Night Fever this week is looking good. Perfect weather for football. The Roots & Blues & BBQ festival will have picture perfect fall weather. No need to worry about rain. We don't have that in the forecast. You might want a light jacket to carry around though. Temperatures will be in the 60s for highs and 40s for lows.
As for the month of October, the CPC has come out with their latest prediction for temperatures and precipitation. It appears that we will have above average temperatures for the month and below normal precipitation amounts. You can check for yourself at http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/. It also has the 90 day outlooks as well if you are interested.
Friday Night Fever this week is looking good. Perfect weather for football. The Roots & Blues & BBQ festival will have picture perfect fall weather. No need to worry about rain. We don't have that in the forecast. You might want a light jacket to carry around though. Temperatures will be in the 60s for highs and 40s for lows.
As for the month of October, the CPC has come out with their latest prediction for temperatures and precipitation. It appears that we will have above average temperatures for the month and below normal precipitation amounts. You can check for yourself at http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/. It also has the 90 day outlooks as well if you are interested.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Frying Like Bacon
With the entire state of Missouri under an Excessive Heat Warning for the next few days, it is important to remember ways to keep cool around Central MO. If you do not have air conditioning or know someone who doesn't, there are cooling centers they can go to in order to get some relief. I have listed them below.
Columbia Cooling Centers
ARC, 1707 W. Ash St., Red Bus Line
Armory Sports and Community Center, 701 E. Ash, Blue Bus Line
Columbia Public Library, 100 W. Broadway, Red Bus Line
Columbia Mall, 2300 Bernadette Dr., Green and Blue Bus Lines
Columbia/Boone County Health Dept., 1005 W. Worley, Green Bus Line
Columbia Parks and Recreation Office, 601 Business Loop 70, Blue Bus Line
Oakland Senior Center, 1301 Vandiver Dr. Ste. Q, Orange Bus Line
Paquin Towers, 1201 Paquin Street, Red Bus Line
Don't forget if you must be outdoors, or you work outdoors, drink plenty of water. Keep yourself hydrated. Wear light colored, loose fitting clothing. Do not forget to wear sunscreen. That sun has been a scorcher the past couple of days. If you have pets, be sure and check on them. Do not leave them outside for long periods of time, and make sure they have water. Also, check on the elderly, this heat is brutal.
What is the reason for the Heat? Well there is an upper level ridge over the top of us and that causes sinking air within the atmosphere making it difficult for any convective development. All you can do is hope that a pulse thunderstorm will pop up in your area helping to cool things down just a bit, but most of us are staying dry the next couple of days. Stay cool and try to beat the heat!
Columbia Cooling Centers
ARC, 1707 W. Ash St., Red Bus Line
Armory Sports and Community Center, 701 E. Ash, Blue Bus Line
Columbia Public Library, 100 W. Broadway, Red Bus Line
Columbia Mall, 2300 Bernadette Dr., Green and Blue Bus Lines
Columbia/Boone County Health Dept., 1005 W. Worley, Green Bus Line
Columbia Parks and Recreation Office, 601 Business Loop 70, Blue Bus Line
Oakland Senior Center, 1301 Vandiver Dr. Ste. Q, Orange Bus Line
Paquin Towers, 1201 Paquin Street, Red Bus Line
Don't forget if you must be outdoors, or you work outdoors, drink plenty of water. Keep yourself hydrated. Wear light colored, loose fitting clothing. Do not forget to wear sunscreen. That sun has been a scorcher the past couple of days. If you have pets, be sure and check on them. Do not leave them outside for long periods of time, and make sure they have water. Also, check on the elderly, this heat is brutal.
What is the reason for the Heat? Well there is an upper level ridge over the top of us and that causes sinking air within the atmosphere making it difficult for any convective development. All you can do is hope that a pulse thunderstorm will pop up in your area helping to cool things down just a bit, but most of us are staying dry the next couple of days. Stay cool and try to beat the heat!
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
I loved that book growing up, it was a childhood favorite. I always thought it would be so cool if it would rain food. If we lived in the town of Chewandswallow at this point in time, I fear we would have a major issue at hand. If you haven't noticed. It has been raining.. a lot. As a matter of fact, I know it isn't the end of the month just yet but July looks to end well above average as far as precipitation goes. Currently, we have received 5.54" of precipitation to date for July. That is 2.34" above normal. With only 4 more days left in the month and chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend, I have a feeling this number could go even higher.
Here is the situation at hand. We have the jet stream continuing to stay well to the North, close to the Canadian border with the United States. That has helped to trap the heat to the South. We also continue to have plenty of moisture moving in from the Gulf. I know Bonnie died out rather quickly but the Low pressure system associated with it shot up a lot of that moisture. Remember, moisture is one of the key ingredients for strong/severe weather. That moisture has entered a fairly warm atmosphere here in the Midwest. Temperatures have been rather warm, slightly above average for this time of the year here in the Mid MO area. That warm, daytime heating that we have the pleasure of experiencing helps to enhance the instability of the atmosphere. Pumping more moisture into the atmosphere is not going to help. It is just going to aid in the creation of convection, also known as thunderstorm development.
It is very difficult to predict exactly where the instability thunderstorms will occur so you really just have to keep an eye to the sky. Because if you take a look at the rainfall website http://www.cocorahs.org/ you will notice not all areas experience rainfall, or the same rainfall totals. Some areas, do not see any rain, and others see plenty. Just make sure that you have an umbrella handy the next couple of days, because you will probably end up needing one.
Here is the situation at hand. We have the jet stream continuing to stay well to the North, close to the Canadian border with the United States. That has helped to trap the heat to the South. We also continue to have plenty of moisture moving in from the Gulf. I know Bonnie died out rather quickly but the Low pressure system associated with it shot up a lot of that moisture. Remember, moisture is one of the key ingredients for strong/severe weather. That moisture has entered a fairly warm atmosphere here in the Midwest. Temperatures have been rather warm, slightly above average for this time of the year here in the Mid MO area. That warm, daytime heating that we have the pleasure of experiencing helps to enhance the instability of the atmosphere. Pumping more moisture into the atmosphere is not going to help. It is just going to aid in the creation of convection, also known as thunderstorm development.
It is very difficult to predict exactly where the instability thunderstorms will occur so you really just have to keep an eye to the sky. Because if you take a look at the rainfall website http://www.cocorahs.org/ you will notice not all areas experience rainfall, or the same rainfall totals. Some areas, do not see any rain, and others see plenty. Just make sure that you have an umbrella handy the next couple of days, because you will probably end up needing one.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Just When You Though Severe Weather Season Was Over..
We are in a slight risk yet again for severe weather. You can take a look at the outlook for yourself at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/. The main threats for us being strong winds and quarter sized hail according to the SPC. The organization for these storms does not look all that impressive. I would say heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding would be more of a concern at this point, something we have seen over the past couple of days.
Speaking of the past couple of days, you should check this out. CoCoRaHS is an excellent website that keeps track of the rainfall totals everyday. Logging the information into the system from local reports from volunteers around the state and in the various counties in Missouri. If you look at the data that was pulled from yesterday 7/20/10.. you will find some outrageous rainfall totals! http://www.cocorahs.org/Maps/ViewMap.aspx?state=MO. In Adair county, MO around Kirksville, they recorded a total of 9.13" of rainfall from 7/19/10. Another impressive total not too far away was Shelby county with a whopping 8.51" of rainfall on that same day. No wonder the Northeastern section of Missouri faced major flash flooding issues!
Just thought that was rather impressive so I wanted to share. So back to the weather for the rest of the day into the overnight hours.. We have some thunderstorms popping up presently because of the daytime heating that we have experience. Lots of moisture at the surface has helped to get these systems firing along with a mid level shortwave. No shearing, or turning of the winds, is present in the lower levels of the atmosphere so there is no threat for any tornadic activity. Just be careful if you will be outdoors at all, these storms are scattered about the area in nature.
After today, it appears that the severe weather will be lifting further to the North which is good news for us, we do not need anymore heavy rainfall. However, a ridge builds in over the top of us. This High pressure system will trap the hot and humid airmass over the top of us as we inch closer to the weekend. So make sure to take it easy when you are outdoors. Drink plenty of fluids and if you get overheated get indoors! It is going to be a steambath out there!
Speaking of the past couple of days, you should check this out. CoCoRaHS is an excellent website that keeps track of the rainfall totals everyday. Logging the information into the system from local reports from volunteers around the state and in the various counties in Missouri. If you look at the data that was pulled from yesterday 7/20/10.. you will find some outrageous rainfall totals! http://www.cocorahs.org/Maps/ViewMap.aspx?state=MO. In Adair county, MO around Kirksville, they recorded a total of 9.13" of rainfall from 7/19/10. Another impressive total not too far away was Shelby county with a whopping 8.51" of rainfall on that same day. No wonder the Northeastern section of Missouri faced major flash flooding issues!
Just thought that was rather impressive so I wanted to share. So back to the weather for the rest of the day into the overnight hours.. We have some thunderstorms popping up presently because of the daytime heating that we have experience. Lots of moisture at the surface has helped to get these systems firing along with a mid level shortwave. No shearing, or turning of the winds, is present in the lower levels of the atmosphere so there is no threat for any tornadic activity. Just be careful if you will be outdoors at all, these storms are scattered about the area in nature.
After today, it appears that the severe weather will be lifting further to the North which is good news for us, we do not need anymore heavy rainfall. However, a ridge builds in over the top of us. This High pressure system will trap the hot and humid airmass over the top of us as we inch closer to the weekend. So make sure to take it easy when you are outdoors. Drink plenty of fluids and if you get overheated get indoors! It is going to be a steambath out there!
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Heat Wave On The Way
The heat is on Mid Missouri! Dew points are going to be climbing into the middle and upper 70s. That will make for some pretty humid weather in addition to those high daytime temperatures. We could potentially see one of the, if not the hottest day of the year tomorrow. This is going to make for some dangerous heat the next couple of days. The entire viewing area is under a heat advisory.
We will have a cold front move though late day Thursdsay into your Friday morning. The clouds will begin to increase and the chances for rain will also into the overnight hours. Some of these storms have the potential to be strong, maybe even severe. The Storm Prediction Center out of Oklahoma does not have us in any kind of risk just yet. They may upgrade it to a slight risk in the near future.
That will help drop temperatures a few degrees for Friday. But the heat and humidity will return for the weekend and looks to continue into next week as well. Check it out on our website http://www.komu.com/KOMU/Images/manual/WXPlus/WSI/5Day_full.jpg . Make sure that you are staying hydrated and drinking plenty of water over the next couple of days. Check on those pets and the elderly as well. If you have to be outdoors, take breaks in the shade and make sure you have the sunscreen on. It will be a scorcher!
We will have a cold front move though late day Thursdsay into your Friday morning. The clouds will begin to increase and the chances for rain will also into the overnight hours. Some of these storms have the potential to be strong, maybe even severe. The Storm Prediction Center out of Oklahoma does not have us in any kind of risk just yet. They may upgrade it to a slight risk in the near future.
That will help drop temperatures a few degrees for Friday. But the heat and humidity will return for the weekend and looks to continue into next week as well. Check it out on our website http://www.komu.com/KOMU/Images/manual/WXPlus/WSI/5Day_full.jpg . Make sure that you are staying hydrated and drinking plenty of water over the next couple of days. Check on those pets and the elderly as well. If you have to be outdoors, take breaks in the shade and make sure you have the sunscreen on. It will be a scorcher!
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Just Can't Seem to Turn Off the Rain!
A stubborn weather pattern continues across Missouri for the next few days. After the beautiful weather last week we saw a transition over the weekend. The humidity came back into the picture as winds shifted to the South. That kicked up the remnants of Hurricane Alex into the Midwest. Luckily, it held off for the Fourth of July festivities. But it did show up to start the work week.
There have been several areas of heavy rainfall across the area. In one hour yesterday, Sanborn Field on MU's campus picked up around 1 and 3/4 to 2 inches of rain in one hours time. Several reports on the Cocorah's website show almost 3 inches of rain total in a 24 hour period yesterday in Boone County while some areas barely picked up any precipitation. You can check out numbers for yourself on the website http://www.cocorahs.org/state.aspx?state=mo
As far as the weather goes from today on, we will continue to see scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up around the area for Wednesday and Thursday. We have a front off to our West that is keeping the moisture and shower activity centered over the state. Along with the jetstream that follows the frontal boundry, it is forcing the activity to stay over the top of us and not go anywhere anytime soon. No severe weather threats here but the chances for some flash flooding will be the main concern, especially with these heavy patches of rainfall.
And always make sure if you are out driving in the heavy rainfall, have your headlights on! Saw several people without their lights on today. Don't forget to slow down either when you can barely see the vehicle in front of you. Saw a car donut spin in the middle of 63 and go through the median. Be safe out there everyone!
There have been several areas of heavy rainfall across the area. In one hour yesterday, Sanborn Field on MU's campus picked up around 1 and 3/4 to 2 inches of rain in one hours time. Several reports on the Cocorah's website show almost 3 inches of rain total in a 24 hour period yesterday in Boone County while some areas barely picked up any precipitation. You can check out numbers for yourself on the website http://www.cocorahs.org/state.aspx?state=mo
As far as the weather goes from today on, we will continue to see scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up around the area for Wednesday and Thursday. We have a front off to our West that is keeping the moisture and shower activity centered over the state. Along with the jetstream that follows the frontal boundry, it is forcing the activity to stay over the top of us and not go anywhere anytime soon. No severe weather threats here but the chances for some flash flooding will be the main concern, especially with these heavy patches of rainfall.
And always make sure if you are out driving in the heavy rainfall, have your headlights on! Saw several people without their lights on today. Don't forget to slow down either when you can barely see the vehicle in front of you. Saw a car donut spin in the middle of 63 and go through the median. Be safe out there everyone!
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Summer Weather You Can't Complain About
This seems to be one of the nicest weeks that we have had in quite some time. After we had the cold front move through, that helped drop the temperatures from the 90s to the 80s along with a decrease in humidity. I think all of us can appreciate that. Thank the High pressure system over the top of us for the pleasant weather we are experiencing.
It seems throughout the work week, we will continue with this weather pattern. The High pressure system isn't going anywhere. Temperatures will be in the middle 80s with lots of sunshine. Looking ahead to the Fourth of July holiday weekend, we are keeping it dry. There could be a weather system moving in towards the end of the weekend and early next week dependent upon what direction Tropical Storm Alex would like to go and how fast it will move once it makes landfall. This morning it was traveling only 5 mph in the Gulf. You can go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for more information on Alex and its projected path.
We will have a better idea if we will be affected by the system here in the Midwest later on this week. Stay Tuned. Until then, get outside and enjoy the gorgeous weather!
It seems throughout the work week, we will continue with this weather pattern. The High pressure system isn't going anywhere. Temperatures will be in the middle 80s with lots of sunshine. Looking ahead to the Fourth of July holiday weekend, we are keeping it dry. There could be a weather system moving in towards the end of the weekend and early next week dependent upon what direction Tropical Storm Alex would like to go and how fast it will move once it makes landfall. This morning it was traveling only 5 mph in the Gulf. You can go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for more information on Alex and its projected path.
We will have a better idea if we will be affected by the system here in the Midwest later on this week. Stay Tuned. Until then, get outside and enjoy the gorgeous weather!
Thursday, June 10, 2010
The Weekend Brings HOT Weather
Strong Southerly winds continue to stream in warm, Gulf moisture into the Midwest. We started feeling that today. With the temperatures warming into the mid and upper 80s, we are seeing the heat indicies into the middle 90s. Hopefully you are able to find a pool or enjoy the lake with the upcoming forecast that I have for you.
There have been some isolated showers and thunderstorms popping up to the North. Luckily for us, we have a nice cap on the atmosphere over us. I think the isolated showers should hold off throught the night tonight and most of tomorrow as well. It is going to get HOT and humid around here for Friday and Saturday. Heat indicies will be pushing 100 degrees. If you have plans to be outside, make sure that you are staying hydrated and are wearing the sunscreen. It really is a must. By tomorrow, some areas may see the cap erode and the Southern viewing area might see some activity during the day and then up in the Northwest over night. Otherwise the main event looks to occur on Saturday.
Looking at the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman Oklahoma: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Day 3 would be Saturday. We are in a slight risk but I honestly think that main threats are going to be over Kansas back into Oklahoma and off to our West in the Ohio River Valley. I am not saying we don't have a chance to see severe weather, but the main threats look to surround us.
The problem is there is not a whole lot of consistency between the models on the timing of the front moving through. We will have a much better idea of this tomorrow, hopefully. Keep your eyes to the sky Mid MO. I will continue to keep you posted!
There have been some isolated showers and thunderstorms popping up to the North. Luckily for us, we have a nice cap on the atmosphere over us. I think the isolated showers should hold off throught the night tonight and most of tomorrow as well. It is going to get HOT and humid around here for Friday and Saturday. Heat indicies will be pushing 100 degrees. If you have plans to be outside, make sure that you are staying hydrated and are wearing the sunscreen. It really is a must. By tomorrow, some areas may see the cap erode and the Southern viewing area might see some activity during the day and then up in the Northwest over night. Otherwise the main event looks to occur on Saturday.
Looking at the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman Oklahoma: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Day 3 would be Saturday. We are in a slight risk but I honestly think that main threats are going to be over Kansas back into Oklahoma and off to our West in the Ohio River Valley. I am not saying we don't have a chance to see severe weather, but the main threats look to surround us.
The problem is there is not a whole lot of consistency between the models on the timing of the front moving through. We will have a much better idea of this tomorrow, hopefully. Keep your eyes to the sky Mid MO. I will continue to keep you posted!
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
A Stormy Evening Ahead
The SPC out of Norman, OK has us in a slight risk for severe weather tonight. You can check it out for yourself at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/. There is a Tornado Watch posted until 9 pm for the Western viewing area. That includes: Macon, Chariton, Randolph, Saline, Howard. Cooper, Pettis, and Morgan Counties.
We saw a strong line of showers and thunderstorms move through earlier this morning. Once it passed the area, we were left with a cloud deck that didn't allow temperatures to warm all that much in the early afternoon. Once the clouds started to move out late this afternoon, it has allowed the Western half of the state to warm up into the middle 80s.
With plenty of moisture at the surface after the line of storms this morning, and the warm temperatures the atmosphere has become rather unstable. We also have the cold front that is pushing the moisture out ahead of the front, this will force the warm air to rise into the atmosphere thus creating thunderstorms. We are already starting to see some pop up out over Eastern Kansas and the Kansas City Metro area on the Missouri side.
The Skew-T diagram http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html will show that we do have a bit of wind shear in the lower levels. This supports circulation with in thunderstorms. We are in the warm sector of this Low Pressure system in which the low level jet is strengthening. If you also look at the CAPE values out over Eastern Kansas/Western Missouri, they are extremely impressive, 3,500 - 4,000 J/KG. CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. It is a measure of the amount of energy available for convection, and needless to say that is a whole lot of energy. If you would like to read more about what CAPE is you can here: http://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=CAPE
Put all of the above factors together and the threat for super cell with large hail and tornadic development will be possible. Doppler Dave and I will be monitoring this situation as anything may arise. Keep it right here to www.komu.com and KOMU TV 8 for the latest in severe weather coverage YOU can count on!
We saw a strong line of showers and thunderstorms move through earlier this morning. Once it passed the area, we were left with a cloud deck that didn't allow temperatures to warm all that much in the early afternoon. Once the clouds started to move out late this afternoon, it has allowed the Western half of the state to warm up into the middle 80s.
With plenty of moisture at the surface after the line of storms this morning, and the warm temperatures the atmosphere has become rather unstable. We also have the cold front that is pushing the moisture out ahead of the front, this will force the warm air to rise into the atmosphere thus creating thunderstorms. We are already starting to see some pop up out over Eastern Kansas and the Kansas City Metro area on the Missouri side.
The Skew-T diagram http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html will show that we do have a bit of wind shear in the lower levels. This supports circulation with in thunderstorms. We are in the warm sector of this Low Pressure system in which the low level jet is strengthening. If you also look at the CAPE values out over Eastern Kansas/Western Missouri, they are extremely impressive, 3,500 - 4,000 J/KG. CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. It is a measure of the amount of energy available for convection, and needless to say that is a whole lot of energy. If you would like to read more about what CAPE is you can here: http://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=CAPE
Put all of the above factors together and the threat for super cell with large hail and tornadic development will be possible. Doppler Dave and I will be monitoring this situation as anything may arise. Keep it right here to www.komu.com and KOMU TV 8 for the latest in severe weather coverage YOU can count on!
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Welcome to June!
After an average month of May, as far as precipitation and temperatures go, the month of June is shaping up to be wet with temperatures that have equal chances to be above, below or average. You can check it out for yourself on the SPC website. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ The first week or two this month looks to be a little on the warm side, with above average precipitation.
We have already seen plenty of rainfall already and we are only 3 days in to the month. Some severe weather moved through last night in the Southern half of our viewing area. We saw a handful of severe thunderstorm warnings along with a tornado warning for Phelps county. Today we look to dry things out, the showers that linger in the South will move out and take the clouds along with it. That means sunshine for us this afternoon. The winds out of the Northeast will help keep the humidity in check, so afternoon highs will be in the lower 80s.
The next chance to see some showers and thunderstorms comes late Friday into Saturday. Will these be severe? Well check out the SPC website with me: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ . At this point it appears that we will be in a slight risk for severe weather the first half of the weekend. This can always change though. The Live Doppler 8 First Alert weather team will be monitoring the situation as it arises.
We have already seen plenty of rainfall already and we are only 3 days in to the month. Some severe weather moved through last night in the Southern half of our viewing area. We saw a handful of severe thunderstorm warnings along with a tornado warning for Phelps county. Today we look to dry things out, the showers that linger in the South will move out and take the clouds along with it. That means sunshine for us this afternoon. The winds out of the Northeast will help keep the humidity in check, so afternoon highs will be in the lower 80s.
The next chance to see some showers and thunderstorms comes late Friday into Saturday. Will these be severe? Well check out the SPC website with me: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ . At this point it appears that we will be in a slight risk for severe weather the first half of the weekend. This can always change though. The Live Doppler 8 First Alert weather team will be monitoring the situation as it arises.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Outdoor Plans for the Holiday Weekend?
You could not ask for a better weekend coming up. Last week it was cool and rainy, this week hot and humid. It seems like we can be satisfied either way, or can we?
The upcoming Memorial Day Weekend is looking picture perfect at the present moment. Check out the four panel plot from Unisys: http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/12h/gfs_4panel_12h.html. It looks like we will be able to enjoy the sunshine and warmth without the humidity. We have an upper level high over the Midwest. As that High moves a little closer, we will see the winds shift from the South to the North in the next 24 to 36 hours.
This will help to decrease the temperatures a bit and take away the humid environment. It sure does make the warm weather much more bearable. We should see temperatures in the lower 80s for Saturday and Sunday. A front moves through by Monday but we will worry about the chances of rain once it gets closer to time.
Just keep in mind though, with the holiday weekend many of us will be outside BBQing or soaking up the sun at the Lake, you need to make sure you have sunscreen on and stay hydrated. Enjoy the fabulous weekend everyone!
The upcoming Memorial Day Weekend is looking picture perfect at the present moment. Check out the four panel plot from Unisys: http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/12h/gfs_4panel_12h.html. It looks like we will be able to enjoy the sunshine and warmth without the humidity. We have an upper level high over the Midwest. As that High moves a little closer, we will see the winds shift from the South to the North in the next 24 to 36 hours.
This will help to decrease the temperatures a bit and take away the humid environment. It sure does make the warm weather much more bearable. We should see temperatures in the lower 80s for Saturday and Sunday. A front moves through by Monday but we will worry about the chances of rain once it gets closer to time.
Just keep in mind though, with the holiday weekend many of us will be outside BBQing or soaking up the sun at the Lake, you need to make sure you have sunscreen on and stay hydrated. Enjoy the fabulous weekend everyone!
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
From One Extreme to the Next
Last week we were all complaining that we were sick of the cool, wet weather and wanted the sunshine back. Well, it’s back now and out in full force really heating things up. It is downright HOT outside! A big part of the reason behind this is because of the location of the jetstream. It is troughing over the Pacific Northwest presently and we are experiencing an upper level ridge over the Midwest. This is allowing the warm, moist Gulf air to advect from the South.
These conditions have actually been the reason that we have been unable to rule out a pop up shower or thunderstorm the past few days. This has created a fairly unstable airmass across the area with the daytime heating that has been occuring. As you may have noticed last night, there were a few thunderstorms that popped up across our viewing area. One in particular was moving in a rather unusual direction.
A storm cell that developed down around the Memphis area ended up in Gasconade county last night. One may notice that this would mean the direction of the storm cell moved Southeast to Northwest. Usually we see systems move West to East with a Southwestly to Northeastly component. The storm cell last night never became severe however there were a handful of reports of trees knocked over in Gasconade last evening. Why is that? If there was enough power in a storm to knock over trees, one would assume that it was a severe storm..
Well here is the science behind why that is. Trees and other things in nature build up a tolerance on the West side because that is where we usually see the storms and the winds associated move from. When you disrupt this pattern and have a storm move the opposite direction, the strong storms and winds are now blowing on the weaker side of the tree. This tends to cause trees to fall over and in some cases be uprooted. Now while we didn’t see extreme widespread damage in the event last night, these unusual East to West storms tend to do much more damage than storms that move West to East.
One of the most extreme cases of this I can recall in recent past was in St. Louis on July 19, 2006. You can read more about that particular storm here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=july_2006 I was actually downtown when this storm system hit. It moved from Illinois into Missouri and did some of the worst damage I have ever seen. Large trees that were decades upon decades old uprooted all over downtown, with power outtages all over due to down trees. Lucky for us, last nights particular storm cell was not severe otherwise the damage could have been a lot worse. We continue to roll on with severe weather season, but beware of the storms that move the opposite direction.
These conditions have actually been the reason that we have been unable to rule out a pop up shower or thunderstorm the past few days. This has created a fairly unstable airmass across the area with the daytime heating that has been occuring. As you may have noticed last night, there were a few thunderstorms that popped up across our viewing area. One in particular was moving in a rather unusual direction.
A storm cell that developed down around the Memphis area ended up in Gasconade county last night. One may notice that this would mean the direction of the storm cell moved Southeast to Northwest. Usually we see systems move West to East with a Southwestly to Northeastly component. The storm cell last night never became severe however there were a handful of reports of trees knocked over in Gasconade last evening. Why is that? If there was enough power in a storm to knock over trees, one would assume that it was a severe storm..
Well here is the science behind why that is. Trees and other things in nature build up a tolerance on the West side because that is where we usually see the storms and the winds associated move from. When you disrupt this pattern and have a storm move the opposite direction, the strong storms and winds are now blowing on the weaker side of the tree. This tends to cause trees to fall over and in some cases be uprooted. Now while we didn’t see extreme widespread damage in the event last night, these unusual East to West storms tend to do much more damage than storms that move West to East.
One of the most extreme cases of this I can recall in recent past was in St. Louis on July 19, 2006. You can read more about that particular storm here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=july_2006 I was actually downtown when this storm system hit. It moved from Illinois into Missouri and did some of the worst damage I have ever seen. Large trees that were decades upon decades old uprooted all over downtown, with power outtages all over due to down trees. Lucky for us, last nights particular storm cell was not severe otherwise the damage could have been a lot worse. We continue to roll on with severe weather season, but beware of the storms that move the opposite direction.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Get Excited For The Weekend
Okay.. so who else is sick of this cool, cloudy, rainy weather? Good news for all of us who are. This weekend will be sunny and hot! We will go from one extreme to the next. I wish we were able to actually have spring time weather where its in the 70s with sunshine for a while. Not the case in Missouri. Overnight Thursday into early Friday we will continue to see rain showers stick around. The low level jet continues to stream in warm, gulf moisture. Once the Low Pressure clears the area, it will begin to take the cloud cover with it.
Look for the clouds to decrease into your Friday afternoon. This brings back the sunshine just in time for the weekend. It seems like it has been a while since we have had a pleasant weekend. We will see a warm front lift over the Midwest sending us plenty of warm air advection. The Southerly winds in addition to the sunshine will heat things up into the middle and upper 80s, and lower 90s for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. This will probably feel rather oppressive compared to the cooler temperatures we have been seeing.
You can go to http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/12h/gfsx_4panel_12h.html to look at what I am using to forecast this hot weekend weather. There are four panels for this model. The time frame goes out 10 days. The upper left hand corner is the one that I will focus on. This deals with temperature. If you move the time frame to three days out, you will notice the warm colors, oranges and reds, that are moving into the Midwest. You may also notice that there is a Low Pressure system in the center of the Midwestern states. This is where we are seeing the warm Southerly flow moving in. We find our selves in the warm sector of the system.
Make sure you have the shorts and t-shirts ready to go for this weekend. You may even want to bust out the sunscreen if you will be outside for ball games, yard work, ect. We will take a closer look coming up this weekend.
Look for the clouds to decrease into your Friday afternoon. This brings back the sunshine just in time for the weekend. It seems like it has been a while since we have had a pleasant weekend. We will see a warm front lift over the Midwest sending us plenty of warm air advection. The Southerly winds in addition to the sunshine will heat things up into the middle and upper 80s, and lower 90s for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. This will probably feel rather oppressive compared to the cooler temperatures we have been seeing.
You can go to http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/12h/gfsx_4panel_12h.html to look at what I am using to forecast this hot weekend weather. There are four panels for this model. The time frame goes out 10 days. The upper left hand corner is the one that I will focus on. This deals with temperature. If you move the time frame to three days out, you will notice the warm colors, oranges and reds, that are moving into the Midwest. You may also notice that there is a Low Pressure system in the center of the Midwestern states. This is where we are seeing the warm Southerly flow moving in. We find our selves in the warm sector of the system.
Make sure you have the shorts and t-shirts ready to go for this weekend. You may even want to bust out the sunscreen if you will be outside for ball games, yard work, ect. We will take a closer look coming up this weekend.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
The Sunshine Returns.. For Today
After several rainy and cloudy days in Mid Missouri, the sunshine has returned! This is due in part to an upper level ridge over the area. It is being squeezed in between two Low Pressure centers to the West and East of us. So what does that mean... it means that the sunshine won't be lasting too much longer. We will start to see the Low move into the area tomorrow. This will being to increase the cloud cover from the Southwest lifting to the Northeast for your Wednesday. This system will also bring us some heavy rainfall heading into the overnight hours and throughout Thursday.
Thus my real focus here shifts to the heavy rainfall. The Missouri River has crested in many areas if you take a look at the Hydrological predictions from the National weather Service ( http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&toggles=10,7,8,2,9,15,6 ) but we still have moderate to minor flooding occurring.
We have seen a lot of precipitation this month already and in the recent past, with several flash flooding issues. As it stands now, we have seen 3.50" of precipitation. That is 0.80 " above average for this month. We will probably see more flash flooding issues heading into the latter half of the work week. At this point the Storm Predictions Center does not have us in any kind of risk for this to be severe.. we will just see heavy rainfall.
So enjoy the sunshine today and what we see of it tomorrow while it lasts. But the weekend is looking spectacular! More details to come later this week.
Thus my real focus here shifts to the heavy rainfall. The Missouri River has crested in many areas if you take a look at the Hydrological predictions from the National weather Service ( http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&toggles=10,7,8,2,9,15,6 ) but we still have moderate to minor flooding occurring.
We have seen a lot of precipitation this month already and in the recent past, with several flash flooding issues. As it stands now, we have seen 3.50" of precipitation. That is 0.80 " above average for this month. We will probably see more flash flooding issues heading into the latter half of the work week. At this point the Storm Predictions Center does not have us in any kind of risk for this to be severe.. we will just see heavy rainfall.
So enjoy the sunshine today and what we see of it tomorrow while it lasts. But the weekend is looking spectacular! More details to come later this week.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
A Stormy Set Up
It appears that today has a much better chance for severe weather. The SPC ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ ) has us in a slight risk for severe weather. If you haven't noticed today has been fairly muggy compared to yesterday. The warm front has been lifting across the state sending us warm air advection. This is helping to destablalize the atmosphere allowing for showers and thunderstorms to pop up to our west. Two key ingredients in severe weather development, moisture and instability.
Presently Kansas is experiencing tornado warnings with several reports of tornadoes on the ground. Lucky for us, it has not arrived just yet, but it is on the way. With the sunshine we have seen poke through this afternoon and the low level jet strengthening in the warm sector, our air mass is losing its cap. It's like taking a bottle cap off a shaken soda, once the cap erodes an explosion of thunderstorms begin to develop.
After looking at the Skew T diagram from this morning in Springfield, MO, it appears that a severe weather outbreak for us is quite possible. All the indicies indicated off to the right show a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to turn severe. We also see the shifting of the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This would support possible tornadic development, particularly off to the West and North in the state of Missouri. You can also take note that there is a lot of moisture at the surface with a drier airmass above it. Then in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the moisture starts to return. http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html
After looking at our RPM precipitation model, it appears that we will see a strong line of showers and thunderstorms start to move into the area later this evening. Some of these will likely become severe. Most of that looks to stay up to the Northern and Western portions of our viewing area. Keep it right here to KOMU 8 News and http://www.komu.com/ for the latest in severe weather coverage!
Presently Kansas is experiencing tornado warnings with several reports of tornadoes on the ground. Lucky for us, it has not arrived just yet, but it is on the way. With the sunshine we have seen poke through this afternoon and the low level jet strengthening in the warm sector, our air mass is losing its cap. It's like taking a bottle cap off a shaken soda, once the cap erodes an explosion of thunderstorms begin to develop.
After looking at the Skew T diagram from this morning in Springfield, MO, it appears that a severe weather outbreak for us is quite possible. All the indicies indicated off to the right show a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to turn severe. We also see the shifting of the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This would support possible tornadic development, particularly off to the West and North in the state of Missouri. You can also take note that there is a lot of moisture at the surface with a drier airmass above it. Then in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the moisture starts to return. http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html
After looking at our RPM precipitation model, it appears that we will see a strong line of showers and thunderstorms start to move into the area later this evening. Some of these will likely become severe. Most of that looks to stay up to the Northern and Western portions of our viewing area. Keep it right here to KOMU 8 News and http://www.komu.com/ for the latest in severe weather coverage!
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Outlook for Severe Weather
Well, we didn't see any severe storms in the viewing area last night. A big part of this is due to the cool temperatures that held throughout Monday. We only saw a temperature spread of 4 degrees yesterday. The sun was never able to poke through the clouds therefore our airmass was not heated to increase instability within the atmosphere.
Today, we continue to be in a slight risk for severe weather according to SPC. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ . The primary threat for any storms that we see here in Central Missouri would be large hail. Taking a more in depth look at the chances of actually seeing severe weather tonight do not look all that impressive. Here is my thinking on this..
Yes, we are seeing the sun start to peek through the clouds. Yes, this will create a little more of an unstable airmass due to daytime heating. The warm front will be lifting through the area pushing the cooler airmass out. The warm air will ride up over the cold layer thus building up the clouds for thunderstorm development. These are things that point to favorable conditions for potential severe weather.
However, if we take a closer look at the science aspect, I will bring in the sounding from Springfield, MO this morning at 12z. Take a look for yourself. http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html
You will see two lines on this model. One line is the temperature line (on the right) and the other is the dewpoint line (on the left). We all know that when the temperature and dewpoint are closer, the more moisture we have in the atmosphere. There is moisture in the lower levels but the rest of the Skew T suggests the the atmosphere is mostly dry the rest of the way up. There really isn't a whole lot in the way of wind shear (turning of the winds as you move up within the layers of the atmosphere) . The wind barbs off to the right side show that they all stay pretty much in the same direction. This means that we will not see any tornadic development. You need shear within the lower levels of the atmosphere for this to happen.
And the verdict is.. I believe we will see some showers and thunderstorms overnight, similar to what we had last night. Some of this may turn severe, if the hail threshold (1" in diameter) is reached. I think our main concern though will definitely be flash flooding. We had quite a bit of rain yesterday and I think whatever we see tonight and into Wednesday will only continue to increase the chances for this problem.
Today, we continue to be in a slight risk for severe weather according to SPC. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ . The primary threat for any storms that we see here in Central Missouri would be large hail. Taking a more in depth look at the chances of actually seeing severe weather tonight do not look all that impressive. Here is my thinking on this..
Yes, we are seeing the sun start to peek through the clouds. Yes, this will create a little more of an unstable airmass due to daytime heating. The warm front will be lifting through the area pushing the cooler airmass out. The warm air will ride up over the cold layer thus building up the clouds for thunderstorm development. These are things that point to favorable conditions for potential severe weather.
However, if we take a closer look at the science aspect, I will bring in the sounding from Springfield, MO this morning at 12z. Take a look for yourself. http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html
You will see two lines on this model. One line is the temperature line (on the right) and the other is the dewpoint line (on the left). We all know that when the temperature and dewpoint are closer, the more moisture we have in the atmosphere. There is moisture in the lower levels but the rest of the Skew T suggests the the atmosphere is mostly dry the rest of the way up. There really isn't a whole lot in the way of wind shear (turning of the winds as you move up within the layers of the atmosphere) . The wind barbs off to the right side show that they all stay pretty much in the same direction. This means that we will not see any tornadic development. You need shear within the lower levels of the atmosphere for this to happen.
And the verdict is.. I believe we will see some showers and thunderstorms overnight, similar to what we had last night. Some of this may turn severe, if the hail threshold (1" in diameter) is reached. I think our main concern though will definitely be flash flooding. We had quite a bit of rain yesterday and I think whatever we see tonight and into Wednesday will only continue to increase the chances for this problem.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Heading into the Weekend
Despite a Slight Risk for severe weather today issued by the SPC (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/) , I am thinking that we really won't be seeing a whole lot in the way of severe activity. Our RPM models have been showing a line of strong showers and thunderstorms that looks to move through the Missouri/Iowa border late tonight into the overnight hours. My thinking is that if anyone in the viewing area sees any showers or thunderstorms, it will most likely be in Chariton, Saline, Macon, and possibly Randolph counties. Everyone else looks to be in the clear.
The Skew-T model out of Springfield (http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html) for this morning shows a dry and stable atmosphere with the dewpoint and actual air temperature so far apart. The only thing that is really hinting at any chance for severe weather would be the low level wind shear. You will notice on the Skew T, starting at the surface up to 750 mb, the wind barbs shift 180 degrees as you go up in the atmosphere.
We look to be dry once we get into the afternoon hours on your Friday. The pleasant weather continues into your Saturday with cooler temperatures, highs only in the 60s. Not a whole lot to complain about. Once we get into Mother's Day on Sunday, the clouds look to start rolling back in. We will see a warm front start to lift across the upper Midwest and that will bring us our chances for rain showers heading into Monday and Tuesday. None of this looks to be severe at this time but as always, we will be keeping our eye on things. Check out the latest forecast at www.komu.com and watch KOMU TV 8 for the latest forecast!
The Skew-T model out of Springfield (http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html) for this morning shows a dry and stable atmosphere with the dewpoint and actual air temperature so far apart. The only thing that is really hinting at any chance for severe weather would be the low level wind shear. You will notice on the Skew T, starting at the surface up to 750 mb, the wind barbs shift 180 degrees as you go up in the atmosphere.
We look to be dry once we get into the afternoon hours on your Friday. The pleasant weather continues into your Saturday with cooler temperatures, highs only in the 60s. Not a whole lot to complain about. Once we get into Mother's Day on Sunday, the clouds look to start rolling back in. We will see a warm front start to lift across the upper Midwest and that will bring us our chances for rain showers heading into Monday and Tuesday. None of this looks to be severe at this time but as always, we will be keeping our eye on things. Check out the latest forecast at www.komu.com and watch KOMU TV 8 for the latest forecast!
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Drier Weather for the Work Week
It looks like we will have a nice dry spell for the work week. We have a cold front that is getting ready to sink down in the Northern half of the state heading into your Wednesday. This means that we will probably see some cooler temperatures in the mid/lower 70s for those counties to the North of the viewing area and further to the South, warmer temperatures in the lower 80s. This gorgeous weather continues on into Thursday as well. Despite a cold front moving through which we normally associate storm development with, we should continue to see dry conditions. The area forecast discussion out of St. Louis would agree with this as well. You can read the forecast discussion for yourself at: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LSX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
A warm front will begin to lift over the Midwest Thursday which will allow for the air to become unstable. This will lead to some shower and thunderstorm development late Thursday into Friday morning. Nothing at this point is leading me to believe that any of this development could be severe.. The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman Oklahoma (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/) does not have any convective outlooks for us at this time. This, as we already know, can always change for us. There will be a better idea of what we have to deal with come tomorrow.
Until then, enjoy the beautiful spring time weather. Take advantage of it if you can!
A warm front will begin to lift over the Midwest Thursday which will allow for the air to become unstable. This will lead to some shower and thunderstorm development late Thursday into Friday morning. Nothing at this point is leading me to believe that any of this development could be severe.. The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman Oklahoma (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/) does not have any convective outlooks for us at this time. This, as we already know, can always change for us. There will be a better idea of what we have to deal with come tomorrow.
Until then, enjoy the beautiful spring time weather. Take advantage of it if you can!
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Upcoming Severe Weather Event
That wind is blowing like crazy out there today! We are warming up nicely in response to the southerly breeze and the sunshine. This will continue into your day Friday which will create an unstable atmosphere as the cold front gets ready to push on through. That cold front will be giving us the lift we need to drive that warm airmass into the sky thus developing thunderstorms. Friday is looking very interesting at this point. We will be in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow. If you look at the latest SPC Outlook, there is a 30% chance for severe weather to develop. Here is a link that you can go check out for yourself: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
This has changed from this morning, and it looks like they may even consider upgrading it to a moderate risk for tomorrow potentially. We will have plenty of warm, moist, unstable air in place tomorrow afternoon so as soon as the cap breaks, things could get quite interesting around here. There is going to be quite a bit of strong shearing in the lower levels of the atmosphere, this is detected by hodographs. This means that the winds will be shifting directions in the lower levels to the point where you have winds going in opposite directions very close to the surface. This is ideal for rotation in super cell development and there is the potential for tornadoes in the middle Mississippi Valley (that includes us!). Needless to say, tomorrow will be very interesting to see how things play out. We could see a complete bust, or we could see a crazy outbreak. It will be much easier to decide what we are dealing with tomorrow morning when we have new data to work with. Until then, keep it right here to KOMU 8 News for the latest in severe weather coverage and if you haven't already log on to our website www.komu.com to sign up for our text alerts in the event of a warning in your area.
This has changed from this morning, and it looks like they may even consider upgrading it to a moderate risk for tomorrow potentially. We will have plenty of warm, moist, unstable air in place tomorrow afternoon so as soon as the cap breaks, things could get quite interesting around here. There is going to be quite a bit of strong shearing in the lower levels of the atmosphere, this is detected by hodographs. This means that the winds will be shifting directions in the lower levels to the point where you have winds going in opposite directions very close to the surface. This is ideal for rotation in super cell development and there is the potential for tornadoes in the middle Mississippi Valley (that includes us!). Needless to say, tomorrow will be very interesting to see how things play out. We could see a complete bust, or we could see a crazy outbreak. It will be much easier to decide what we are dealing with tomorrow morning when we have new data to work with. Until then, keep it right here to KOMU 8 News for the latest in severe weather coverage and if you haven't already log on to our website www.komu.com to sign up for our text alerts in the event of a warning in your area.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
The Calm After the Storm
It was a bumpy ride for us here in the Midwest over the weekend but things have calmed down. While we saw plenty of warnings across the area, both severe thunderstorm and tornado. Good news for us, we did not see any tornadoes here in the viewing area. You can take a look at the storm reports from Saturday for yourself:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/100424_rpts.html
Clearly Mississippi was hit extremely hard with large tornadoes. The tornado that hit Yazoo City was the most powerful and destructive. Preliminary reports showed that it measured 1 3/4 of a mile in width and lasted for about 150 miles. 10 people were killed with this storm outbreak.
Dr. Forbes from the Weather Channel wrote an interesting blog himself about the tornado. You should take a look. It was pretty interesting. http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/ You will see a radar picture that has all the colors we would normally see with a destructive storm, with the exception of the pinkish/purple color. Now while this might normally indicate large hail, it was not the case with this storm cell. The circular shaped area actually showed the debris from the tornado. Pretty wild huh?
Here in Central Missouri, we saw a lot of problems with flash flooding. With this particular storm, we saw record rainfall amounts for the day. In the viewing area, most of us picked up between 2-4 inches of rainfall in 24 hours. Always remember that you should NOT drive through a roadway that is covered with water. You never know how much water is over a road, and you don't even necessarily know if there even is a roadway left under the water.
As for this week.... Things look to be calm Tuesday through Thursday. We will see pleasant weather around the area until we get to the weekend. Looks like we could even have a repeat of last weekend. As we get closer, I will have a better idea of what to expect. Until then, enjoy the beautiful spring time weather!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/100424_rpts.html
Clearly Mississippi was hit extremely hard with large tornadoes. The tornado that hit Yazoo City was the most powerful and destructive. Preliminary reports showed that it measured 1 3/4 of a mile in width and lasted for about 150 miles. 10 people were killed with this storm outbreak.
Dr. Forbes from the Weather Channel wrote an interesting blog himself about the tornado. You should take a look. It was pretty interesting. http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/ You will see a radar picture that has all the colors we would normally see with a destructive storm, with the exception of the pinkish/purple color. Now while this might normally indicate large hail, it was not the case with this storm cell. The circular shaped area actually showed the debris from the tornado. Pretty wild huh?
Here in Central Missouri, we saw a lot of problems with flash flooding. With this particular storm, we saw record rainfall amounts for the day. In the viewing area, most of us picked up between 2-4 inches of rainfall in 24 hours. Always remember that you should NOT drive through a roadway that is covered with water. You never know how much water is over a road, and you don't even necessarily know if there even is a roadway left under the water.
As for this week.... Things look to be calm Tuesday through Thursday. We will see pleasant weather around the area until we get to the weekend. Looks like we could even have a repeat of last weekend. As we get closer, I will have a better idea of what to expect. Until then, enjoy the beautiful spring time weather!
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Spring is here! And you know what that means..
Severe Weather Season! We have just seen a dry spell for quite some time where we saw plenty of blue sky but it looks like a wet period will begin. Right now, the current Live Doppler 8 First Alert Radar has heavy showers and thunderstorms moving across the area. This will be the case over the next several days. We will have a chance for some severe weather tomorrow afternoon. It is looking very interesting at this point. Check out the Storm Predictions Center outlook from Norman, OK.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
We are in a slight risk for severe weather, but are showing a 30 % chance for it. Overnight, we will see a low level jet begin to strengthen across Missouri. This will start to advect warm air into the area as the warm front lifts. This allows for some showers and isolated thunderstorms to pop up in the afternoon hours when the air becomes unstable. We will be in the warm sector during this time. If you want to read the area forecast discussion, you can check out this website:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LSX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Looks like our main threats here in Central Missouri will be large hail and damaging winds, can't rule out an isolated tornado as well but the majority of the tornadic super cell activity looks to stay South over Arkansas and Louisiana. That is always subject to change. I will be here tomorrow afternoon keeping an eye on things, and giving severe weather updates as necessary!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
We are in a slight risk for severe weather, but are showing a 30 % chance for it. Overnight, we will see a low level jet begin to strengthen across Missouri. This will start to advect warm air into the area as the warm front lifts. This allows for some showers and isolated thunderstorms to pop up in the afternoon hours when the air becomes unstable. We will be in the warm sector during this time. If you want to read the area forecast discussion, you can check out this website:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LSX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Looks like our main threats here in Central Missouri will be large hail and damaging winds, can't rule out an isolated tornado as well but the majority of the tornadic super cell activity looks to stay South over Arkansas and Louisiana. That is always subject to change. I will be here tomorrow afternoon keeping an eye on things, and giving severe weather updates as necessary!
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