Outlook for Severe Weather

Well, we didn't see any severe storms in the viewing area last night. A big part of this is due to the cool temperatures that held throughout Monday. We only saw a temperature spread of 4 degrees yesterday. The sun was never able to poke through the clouds therefore our airmass was not heated to increase instability within the atmosphere.

Today, we continue to be in a slight risk for severe weather according to SPC. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ . The primary threat for any storms that we see here in Central Missouri would be large hail. Taking a more in depth look at the chances of actually seeing severe weather tonight do not look all that impressive. Here is my thinking on this..

Yes, we are seeing the sun start to peek through the clouds. Yes, this will create a little more of an unstable airmass due to daytime heating. The warm front will be lifting through the area pushing the cooler airmass out. The warm air will ride up over the cold layer thus building up the clouds for thunderstorm development. These are things that point to favorable conditions for potential severe weather.

However, if we take a closer look at the science aspect, I will bring in the sounding from Springfield, MO this morning at 12z. Take a look for yourself. http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html
You will see two lines on this model. One line is the temperature line (on the right) and the other is the dewpoint line (on the left). We all know that when the temperature and dewpoint are closer, the more moisture we have in the atmosphere. There is moisture in the lower levels but the rest of the Skew T suggests the the atmosphere is mostly dry the rest of the way up. There really isn't a whole lot in the way of wind shear (turning of the winds as you move up within the layers of the atmosphere) . The wind barbs off to the right side show that they all stay pretty much in the same direction. This means that we will not see any tornadic development. You need shear within the lower levels of the atmosphere for this to happen.

And the verdict is.. I believe we will see some showers and thunderstorms overnight, similar to what we had last night. Some of this may turn severe, if the hail threshold (1" in diameter) is reached. I think our main concern though will definitely be flash flooding. We had quite a bit of rain yesterday and I think whatever we see tonight and into Wednesday will only continue to increase the chances for this problem.