A Stormy Evening Ahead

The SPC out of Norman, OK has us in a slight risk for severe weather tonight. You can check it out for yourself at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/. There is a Tornado Watch posted until 9 pm for the Western viewing area. That includes: Macon, Chariton, Randolph, Saline, Howard. Cooper, Pettis, and Morgan Counties.

We saw a strong line of showers and thunderstorms move through earlier this morning. Once it passed the area, we were left with a cloud deck that didn't allow temperatures to warm all that much in the early afternoon. Once the clouds started to move out late this afternoon, it has allowed the Western half of the state to warm up into the middle 80s.

With plenty of moisture at the surface after the line of storms this morning, and the warm temperatures the atmosphere has become rather unstable. We also have the cold front that is pushing the moisture out ahead of the front, this will force the warm air to rise into the atmosphere thus creating thunderstorms. We are already starting to see some pop up out over Eastern Kansas and the Kansas City Metro area on the Missouri side.

The Skew-T diagram http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html will show that we do have a bit of wind shear in the lower levels. This supports circulation with in thunderstorms. We are in the warm sector of this Low Pressure system in which the low level jet is strengthening. If you also look at the CAPE values out over Eastern Kansas/Western Missouri, they are extremely impressive, 3,500 - 4,000 J/KG. CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. It is a measure of the amount of energy available for convection, and needless to say that is a whole lot of energy. If you would like to read more about what CAPE is you can here: http://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?word=CAPE

Put all of the above factors together and the threat for super cell with large hail and tornadic development will be possible. Doppler Dave and I will be monitoring this situation as anything may arise. Keep it right here to www.komu.com and KOMU TV 8 for the latest in severe weather coverage YOU can count on!