You could not ask for a better weekend coming up. Last week it was cool and rainy, this week hot and humid. It seems like we can be satisfied either way, or can we?
The upcoming Memorial Day Weekend is looking picture perfect at the present moment. Check out the four panel plot from Unisys: http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/12h/gfs_4panel_12h.html. It looks like we will be able to enjoy the sunshine and warmth without the humidity. We have an upper level high over the Midwest. As that High moves a little closer, we will see the winds shift from the South to the North in the next 24 to 36 hours.
This will help to decrease the temperatures a bit and take away the humid environment. It sure does make the warm weather much more bearable. We should see temperatures in the lower 80s for Saturday and Sunday. A front moves through by Monday but we will worry about the chances of rain once it gets closer to time.
Just keep in mind though, with the holiday weekend many of us will be outside BBQing or soaking up the sun at the Lake, you need to make sure you have sunscreen on and stay hydrated. Enjoy the fabulous weekend everyone!
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
From One Extreme to the Next
Last week we were all complaining that we were sick of the cool, wet weather and wanted the sunshine back. Well, it’s back now and out in full force really heating things up. It is downright HOT outside! A big part of the reason behind this is because of the location of the jetstream. It is troughing over the Pacific Northwest presently and we are experiencing an upper level ridge over the Midwest. This is allowing the warm, moist Gulf air to advect from the South.
These conditions have actually been the reason that we have been unable to rule out a pop up shower or thunderstorm the past few days. This has created a fairly unstable airmass across the area with the daytime heating that has been occuring. As you may have noticed last night, there were a few thunderstorms that popped up across our viewing area. One in particular was moving in a rather unusual direction.
A storm cell that developed down around the Memphis area ended up in Gasconade county last night. One may notice that this would mean the direction of the storm cell moved Southeast to Northwest. Usually we see systems move West to East with a Southwestly to Northeastly component. The storm cell last night never became severe however there were a handful of reports of trees knocked over in Gasconade last evening. Why is that? If there was enough power in a storm to knock over trees, one would assume that it was a severe storm..
Well here is the science behind why that is. Trees and other things in nature build up a tolerance on the West side because that is where we usually see the storms and the winds associated move from. When you disrupt this pattern and have a storm move the opposite direction, the strong storms and winds are now blowing on the weaker side of the tree. This tends to cause trees to fall over and in some cases be uprooted. Now while we didn’t see extreme widespread damage in the event last night, these unusual East to West storms tend to do much more damage than storms that move West to East.
One of the most extreme cases of this I can recall in recent past was in St. Louis on July 19, 2006. You can read more about that particular storm here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=july_2006 I was actually downtown when this storm system hit. It moved from Illinois into Missouri and did some of the worst damage I have ever seen. Large trees that were decades upon decades old uprooted all over downtown, with power outtages all over due to down trees. Lucky for us, last nights particular storm cell was not severe otherwise the damage could have been a lot worse. We continue to roll on with severe weather season, but beware of the storms that move the opposite direction.
These conditions have actually been the reason that we have been unable to rule out a pop up shower or thunderstorm the past few days. This has created a fairly unstable airmass across the area with the daytime heating that has been occuring. As you may have noticed last night, there were a few thunderstorms that popped up across our viewing area. One in particular was moving in a rather unusual direction.
A storm cell that developed down around the Memphis area ended up in Gasconade county last night. One may notice that this would mean the direction of the storm cell moved Southeast to Northwest. Usually we see systems move West to East with a Southwestly to Northeastly component. The storm cell last night never became severe however there were a handful of reports of trees knocked over in Gasconade last evening. Why is that? If there was enough power in a storm to knock over trees, one would assume that it was a severe storm..
Well here is the science behind why that is. Trees and other things in nature build up a tolerance on the West side because that is where we usually see the storms and the winds associated move from. When you disrupt this pattern and have a storm move the opposite direction, the strong storms and winds are now blowing on the weaker side of the tree. This tends to cause trees to fall over and in some cases be uprooted. Now while we didn’t see extreme widespread damage in the event last night, these unusual East to West storms tend to do much more damage than storms that move West to East.
One of the most extreme cases of this I can recall in recent past was in St. Louis on July 19, 2006. You can read more about that particular storm here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=july_2006 I was actually downtown when this storm system hit. It moved from Illinois into Missouri and did some of the worst damage I have ever seen. Large trees that were decades upon decades old uprooted all over downtown, with power outtages all over due to down trees. Lucky for us, last nights particular storm cell was not severe otherwise the damage could have been a lot worse. We continue to roll on with severe weather season, but beware of the storms that move the opposite direction.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Get Excited For The Weekend
Okay.. so who else is sick of this cool, cloudy, rainy weather? Good news for all of us who are. This weekend will be sunny and hot! We will go from one extreme to the next. I wish we were able to actually have spring time weather where its in the 70s with sunshine for a while. Not the case in Missouri. Overnight Thursday into early Friday we will continue to see rain showers stick around. The low level jet continues to stream in warm, gulf moisture. Once the Low Pressure clears the area, it will begin to take the cloud cover with it.
Look for the clouds to decrease into your Friday afternoon. This brings back the sunshine just in time for the weekend. It seems like it has been a while since we have had a pleasant weekend. We will see a warm front lift over the Midwest sending us plenty of warm air advection. The Southerly winds in addition to the sunshine will heat things up into the middle and upper 80s, and lower 90s for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. This will probably feel rather oppressive compared to the cooler temperatures we have been seeing.
You can go to http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/12h/gfsx_4panel_12h.html to look at what I am using to forecast this hot weekend weather. There are four panels for this model. The time frame goes out 10 days. The upper left hand corner is the one that I will focus on. This deals with temperature. If you move the time frame to three days out, you will notice the warm colors, oranges and reds, that are moving into the Midwest. You may also notice that there is a Low Pressure system in the center of the Midwestern states. This is where we are seeing the warm Southerly flow moving in. We find our selves in the warm sector of the system.
Make sure you have the shorts and t-shirts ready to go for this weekend. You may even want to bust out the sunscreen if you will be outside for ball games, yard work, ect. We will take a closer look coming up this weekend.
Look for the clouds to decrease into your Friday afternoon. This brings back the sunshine just in time for the weekend. It seems like it has been a while since we have had a pleasant weekend. We will see a warm front lift over the Midwest sending us plenty of warm air advection. The Southerly winds in addition to the sunshine will heat things up into the middle and upper 80s, and lower 90s for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. This will probably feel rather oppressive compared to the cooler temperatures we have been seeing.
You can go to http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/12h/gfsx_4panel_12h.html to look at what I am using to forecast this hot weekend weather. There are four panels for this model. The time frame goes out 10 days. The upper left hand corner is the one that I will focus on. This deals with temperature. If you move the time frame to three days out, you will notice the warm colors, oranges and reds, that are moving into the Midwest. You may also notice that there is a Low Pressure system in the center of the Midwestern states. This is where we are seeing the warm Southerly flow moving in. We find our selves in the warm sector of the system.
Make sure you have the shorts and t-shirts ready to go for this weekend. You may even want to bust out the sunscreen if you will be outside for ball games, yard work, ect. We will take a closer look coming up this weekend.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
The Sunshine Returns.. For Today
After several rainy and cloudy days in Mid Missouri, the sunshine has returned! This is due in part to an upper level ridge over the area. It is being squeezed in between two Low Pressure centers to the West and East of us. So what does that mean... it means that the sunshine won't be lasting too much longer. We will start to see the Low move into the area tomorrow. This will being to increase the cloud cover from the Southwest lifting to the Northeast for your Wednesday. This system will also bring us some heavy rainfall heading into the overnight hours and throughout Thursday.
Thus my real focus here shifts to the heavy rainfall. The Missouri River has crested in many areas if you take a look at the Hydrological predictions from the National weather Service ( http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&toggles=10,7,8,2,9,15,6 ) but we still have moderate to minor flooding occurring.
We have seen a lot of precipitation this month already and in the recent past, with several flash flooding issues. As it stands now, we have seen 3.50" of precipitation. That is 0.80 " above average for this month. We will probably see more flash flooding issues heading into the latter half of the work week. At this point the Storm Predictions Center does not have us in any kind of risk for this to be severe.. we will just see heavy rainfall.
So enjoy the sunshine today and what we see of it tomorrow while it lasts. But the weekend is looking spectacular! More details to come later this week.
Thus my real focus here shifts to the heavy rainfall. The Missouri River has crested in many areas if you take a look at the Hydrological predictions from the National weather Service ( http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&toggles=10,7,8,2,9,15,6 ) but we still have moderate to minor flooding occurring.
We have seen a lot of precipitation this month already and in the recent past, with several flash flooding issues. As it stands now, we have seen 3.50" of precipitation. That is 0.80 " above average for this month. We will probably see more flash flooding issues heading into the latter half of the work week. At this point the Storm Predictions Center does not have us in any kind of risk for this to be severe.. we will just see heavy rainfall.
So enjoy the sunshine today and what we see of it tomorrow while it lasts. But the weekend is looking spectacular! More details to come later this week.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
A Stormy Set Up
It appears that today has a much better chance for severe weather. The SPC ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ ) has us in a slight risk for severe weather. If you haven't noticed today has been fairly muggy compared to yesterday. The warm front has been lifting across the state sending us warm air advection. This is helping to destablalize the atmosphere allowing for showers and thunderstorms to pop up to our west. Two key ingredients in severe weather development, moisture and instability.
Presently Kansas is experiencing tornado warnings with several reports of tornadoes on the ground. Lucky for us, it has not arrived just yet, but it is on the way. With the sunshine we have seen poke through this afternoon and the low level jet strengthening in the warm sector, our air mass is losing its cap. It's like taking a bottle cap off a shaken soda, once the cap erodes an explosion of thunderstorms begin to develop.
After looking at the Skew T diagram from this morning in Springfield, MO, it appears that a severe weather outbreak for us is quite possible. All the indicies indicated off to the right show a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to turn severe. We also see the shifting of the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This would support possible tornadic development, particularly off to the West and North in the state of Missouri. You can also take note that there is a lot of moisture at the surface with a drier airmass above it. Then in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the moisture starts to return. http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html
After looking at our RPM precipitation model, it appears that we will see a strong line of showers and thunderstorms start to move into the area later this evening. Some of these will likely become severe. Most of that looks to stay up to the Northern and Western portions of our viewing area. Keep it right here to KOMU 8 News and http://www.komu.com/ for the latest in severe weather coverage!
Presently Kansas is experiencing tornado warnings with several reports of tornadoes on the ground. Lucky for us, it has not arrived just yet, but it is on the way. With the sunshine we have seen poke through this afternoon and the low level jet strengthening in the warm sector, our air mass is losing its cap. It's like taking a bottle cap off a shaken soda, once the cap erodes an explosion of thunderstorms begin to develop.
After looking at the Skew T diagram from this morning in Springfield, MO, it appears that a severe weather outbreak for us is quite possible. All the indicies indicated off to the right show a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to turn severe. We also see the shifting of the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This would support possible tornadic development, particularly off to the West and North in the state of Missouri. You can also take note that there is a lot of moisture at the surface with a drier airmass above it. Then in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the moisture starts to return. http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html
After looking at our RPM precipitation model, it appears that we will see a strong line of showers and thunderstorms start to move into the area later this evening. Some of these will likely become severe. Most of that looks to stay up to the Northern and Western portions of our viewing area. Keep it right here to KOMU 8 News and http://www.komu.com/ for the latest in severe weather coverage!
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Outlook for Severe Weather
Well, we didn't see any severe storms in the viewing area last night. A big part of this is due to the cool temperatures that held throughout Monday. We only saw a temperature spread of 4 degrees yesterday. The sun was never able to poke through the clouds therefore our airmass was not heated to increase instability within the atmosphere.
Today, we continue to be in a slight risk for severe weather according to SPC. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ . The primary threat for any storms that we see here in Central Missouri would be large hail. Taking a more in depth look at the chances of actually seeing severe weather tonight do not look all that impressive. Here is my thinking on this..
Yes, we are seeing the sun start to peek through the clouds. Yes, this will create a little more of an unstable airmass due to daytime heating. The warm front will be lifting through the area pushing the cooler airmass out. The warm air will ride up over the cold layer thus building up the clouds for thunderstorm development. These are things that point to favorable conditions for potential severe weather.
However, if we take a closer look at the science aspect, I will bring in the sounding from Springfield, MO this morning at 12z. Take a look for yourself. http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html
You will see two lines on this model. One line is the temperature line (on the right) and the other is the dewpoint line (on the left). We all know that when the temperature and dewpoint are closer, the more moisture we have in the atmosphere. There is moisture in the lower levels but the rest of the Skew T suggests the the atmosphere is mostly dry the rest of the way up. There really isn't a whole lot in the way of wind shear (turning of the winds as you move up within the layers of the atmosphere) . The wind barbs off to the right side show that they all stay pretty much in the same direction. This means that we will not see any tornadic development. You need shear within the lower levels of the atmosphere for this to happen.
And the verdict is.. I believe we will see some showers and thunderstorms overnight, similar to what we had last night. Some of this may turn severe, if the hail threshold (1" in diameter) is reached. I think our main concern though will definitely be flash flooding. We had quite a bit of rain yesterday and I think whatever we see tonight and into Wednesday will only continue to increase the chances for this problem.
Today, we continue to be in a slight risk for severe weather according to SPC. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ . The primary threat for any storms that we see here in Central Missouri would be large hail. Taking a more in depth look at the chances of actually seeing severe weather tonight do not look all that impressive. Here is my thinking on this..
Yes, we are seeing the sun start to peek through the clouds. Yes, this will create a little more of an unstable airmass due to daytime heating. The warm front will be lifting through the area pushing the cooler airmass out. The warm air will ride up over the cold layer thus building up the clouds for thunderstorm development. These are things that point to favorable conditions for potential severe weather.
However, if we take a closer look at the science aspect, I will bring in the sounding from Springfield, MO this morning at 12z. Take a look for yourself. http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html
You will see two lines on this model. One line is the temperature line (on the right) and the other is the dewpoint line (on the left). We all know that when the temperature and dewpoint are closer, the more moisture we have in the atmosphere. There is moisture in the lower levels but the rest of the Skew T suggests the the atmosphere is mostly dry the rest of the way up. There really isn't a whole lot in the way of wind shear (turning of the winds as you move up within the layers of the atmosphere) . The wind barbs off to the right side show that they all stay pretty much in the same direction. This means that we will not see any tornadic development. You need shear within the lower levels of the atmosphere for this to happen.
And the verdict is.. I believe we will see some showers and thunderstorms overnight, similar to what we had last night. Some of this may turn severe, if the hail threshold (1" in diameter) is reached. I think our main concern though will definitely be flash flooding. We had quite a bit of rain yesterday and I think whatever we see tonight and into Wednesday will only continue to increase the chances for this problem.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Heading into the Weekend
Despite a Slight Risk for severe weather today issued by the SPC (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/) , I am thinking that we really won't be seeing a whole lot in the way of severe activity. Our RPM models have been showing a line of strong showers and thunderstorms that looks to move through the Missouri/Iowa border late tonight into the overnight hours. My thinking is that if anyone in the viewing area sees any showers or thunderstorms, it will most likely be in Chariton, Saline, Macon, and possibly Randolph counties. Everyone else looks to be in the clear.
The Skew-T model out of Springfield (http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html) for this morning shows a dry and stable atmosphere with the dewpoint and actual air temperature so far apart. The only thing that is really hinting at any chance for severe weather would be the low level wind shear. You will notice on the Skew T, starting at the surface up to 750 mb, the wind barbs shift 180 degrees as you go up in the atmosphere.
We look to be dry once we get into the afternoon hours on your Friday. The pleasant weather continues into your Saturday with cooler temperatures, highs only in the 60s. Not a whole lot to complain about. Once we get into Mother's Day on Sunday, the clouds look to start rolling back in. We will see a warm front start to lift across the upper Midwest and that will bring us our chances for rain showers heading into Monday and Tuesday. None of this looks to be severe at this time but as always, we will be keeping our eye on things. Check out the latest forecast at www.komu.com and watch KOMU TV 8 for the latest forecast!
The Skew-T model out of Springfield (http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KSGF.html) for this morning shows a dry and stable atmosphere with the dewpoint and actual air temperature so far apart. The only thing that is really hinting at any chance for severe weather would be the low level wind shear. You will notice on the Skew T, starting at the surface up to 750 mb, the wind barbs shift 180 degrees as you go up in the atmosphere.
We look to be dry once we get into the afternoon hours on your Friday. The pleasant weather continues into your Saturday with cooler temperatures, highs only in the 60s. Not a whole lot to complain about. Once we get into Mother's Day on Sunday, the clouds look to start rolling back in. We will see a warm front start to lift across the upper Midwest and that will bring us our chances for rain showers heading into Monday and Tuesday. None of this looks to be severe at this time but as always, we will be keeping our eye on things. Check out the latest forecast at www.komu.com and watch KOMU TV 8 for the latest forecast!
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Drier Weather for the Work Week
It looks like we will have a nice dry spell for the work week. We have a cold front that is getting ready to sink down in the Northern half of the state heading into your Wednesday. This means that we will probably see some cooler temperatures in the mid/lower 70s for those counties to the North of the viewing area and further to the South, warmer temperatures in the lower 80s. This gorgeous weather continues on into Thursday as well. Despite a cold front moving through which we normally associate storm development with, we should continue to see dry conditions. The area forecast discussion out of St. Louis would agree with this as well. You can read the forecast discussion for yourself at: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LSX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
A warm front will begin to lift over the Midwest Thursday which will allow for the air to become unstable. This will lead to some shower and thunderstorm development late Thursday into Friday morning. Nothing at this point is leading me to believe that any of this development could be severe.. The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman Oklahoma (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/) does not have any convective outlooks for us at this time. This, as we already know, can always change for us. There will be a better idea of what we have to deal with come tomorrow.
Until then, enjoy the beautiful spring time weather. Take advantage of it if you can!
A warm front will begin to lift over the Midwest Thursday which will allow for the air to become unstable. This will lead to some shower and thunderstorm development late Thursday into Friday morning. Nothing at this point is leading me to believe that any of this development could be severe.. The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman Oklahoma (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/) does not have any convective outlooks for us at this time. This, as we already know, can always change for us. There will be a better idea of what we have to deal with come tomorrow.
Until then, enjoy the beautiful spring time weather. Take advantage of it if you can!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)