Traveling for the Thanksgiving Holiday?

Today is a big travel day for a lot of people and that will be the focus for this blog on your Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region throughout the day as a warm front lifts north out of Arkansas. A cold front moves through the region tonight and QUICKLY drops temperatures into the 20s for overnight lows. In some locations (mainly along I-44), some rain could switch over to a rain/snow/sleet mix before coming to an end on Thursday morning. With surface temperatures above freezing, accumulations will not be an issue.

Weather Threats for Wednesday:

SEVERE WEATHER - There will be a slight risk for severe weather across the region today as a strong low pressure system and trailing cold front move through. The best opportunity for severe weather will be found across SOUTHERN MISSOURI this afternoon into this evening. The main severe weather risks include DAMAGING WINDS and SMALL HAIL. Initially, there will be a low threat for isolated tornadoes, but that threat is low at this time. MID-MISSOURI could see a few scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, but an organized severe outbreak for the KOMU viewing area remains LOW at this time.

WINTER WEATHER - As mentioned above, there will be a LIMITED threat for some frozen precipitation tonight as a strong cold front sweeps through the region. If the precipitation can hang around long enough, there could be a switchover from rain to light freezing rain or sleet (possibly some snow, too...) late tonight and early on Thursday morning. The best location for this to occur would be along and south of I-44, although, winter-type precipitation could occur as far north as US 24. Regardless, surface temperatures remain warm, so accumulations aren't going to be an issue (except for some grassy surfaces).

**For up-to-date weather information, hourly forecasts for your hometown, and a detailed look at precipitation types using Live Doppler 8 First Alert Radar, please visit Live Doppler 8 Interactive Radar **

A Look Ahead to November

So now that we have closed out the month of October and moved on into November, it is time to take a look at the Climate Prediction Center's outlook for precipitation and temperatures for November. You can take a look for yourself as I go through the predictions at http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/.




After seeing an above average month temperature wise and below average precipitation wise for October, the CPC is expecting more of the same for the month of November. Note that the majority of the Central United States looks to be above average temperature wise. The Pacific Northwest looks to be above average precipitation wise, while the majority of the Southern states on into the Central Midwest looks to be dry.

Why is this? Compared to last year, it seems we are completely opposite of where we were. Well a big part of this has to do with El Nino/La Nina. Last year we were in an El Nino phase, this year we are moving into a La Nina phase. This will cool the waters in the Eastern Pacific and warm the waters in the Western Pacific. The predictions for November follow the pattern as seen below in the diagrams.

Notice for La Nina, conditions will be cool and wet in the PAC Northwest and warm and dry in the South/Central United States. This is the typical pattern we see during these conditions. We shall see if this proves to be true for the upcoming month.

Stay tuned for my next blog. I will be looking closely at what we can expect for the winter months ahead. There seems to be some disagreement between the Farmers Almanac, the CPC, and my grad school professors so I will dissect what I know and give you the information to make your own conclusions and weather guesses!