Severe WX Update

Tonight a warm front will push through the area and spark some thunderstorms. It does look like the threat for thunderstorms will hold off until about 5 am or 6am. And most of these storms will occur along and north of I-7o at that time.

Tomorrow expect showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Then we will see a break in shower activity, and see peaks of sunshine. This will ignite more thunderstorms towards the evening hours as the cold front approaches. This is where the main threat for severe weather is expected. It looks like storms will begin to pop up around 2 pm - 3pm, then track east northeastward through the rest of the viewing area. Expect thunderstorms to push out of the area by midnight tomorrow.

Stay tuned for more info and watch KOMU NEWS TODAY beginning at 5:30 am tomorrow morning for developments.

Anthony

Severe WX Expected

Hey fellow bloggers,

It looks like we will be experiencing some unsettled conditions over the next couple days. Tonight a stationary front will push north into the area bringing a chance for some thunder showers, especially towards daybreak.

Sunday :
Thunderstorms will be spotty, so everyone will not see rain. Towards the evening, storms will intensify & move into Mid Missouri during the overnight hours. This will be the first round of storms to hit us.

Monday:

The second round of severe weather will move in during the afternoon and evening on Monday. With this batch of storms we will see a squall line develop ahead of the front. This means there will very strong winds associated with these storms. And any supercells that develop could contain tornadoes. Areas from Springfield, MO to Kirksville, MO over to St. Louis, MO should be prepared for some intense weather Monday.

This storm system has the potential to produce:

• heavy rain
• large hail
• strong winds
• tornadoes

Continue to stay tuned to WEATHERPLUS 24/7 and KOMU.COM as we bring you updates on this strengthening weather system.

Anthony

Another Round of Rain

Hey Fellow Weather Bloggers!

Well, are you tired of the rain or what? Many areas will have a chance to continue to dry out into Saturday, but rain is expected Sunday...

As a stationary front pushes north into southern MO Sunday morning, this will spark some thunderstorm activity through the day then. As impulses of energy ride along this frontal zone, we will see periods of showers through Monday. As monday approaches, there is a risk for severe weather. So stay tuned & we'll keep you up to date.

So here's a breakdown:

Saturday: Dry & cool

Sunday: Showers move in early, thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening.

Monday: T-storms continued, some could be strong to severe.

Tuesday: Dry again!

Anthony

More rain expected this week...

Many areas saw their rivers crest this past weekend, as flooding continued to threaten Mid-Missouri's residents. Though it looks like most of the extremely cold air will move out of the region after tonight, the threat of more shower activity remains as Wednesday approaches.

It looks like the jet stream will move over the Missouri area, meaning that, low pressures that develop will track across this path dumping rain that they tap into from the Gulf Of Mexico. As of right now it looks like Wednesday evening is when more rain is expected to move in. This rain threat will continue through Friday.

With many rivers and streams above or at flood stage, this could make things more problematic. Floods remain the number 1 killer of severe weather, so remember NEVER attempt to drive through flooded roadways.

In the meantime enjoy Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will be more seasonal with highs near 60.

Anthony

Spring & Flooding Information

Spring officially began at 12:48 Thursday morning, and the good news is that the first few days of the new season look fairly tranquil. That good news has been vastly overshadowed by the moderate to major river flooding that is occurring across much of the southern half of our viewing area. Let's consider those areas where moderate to major flooding is either occurring now or will be within 24 hours.

Moderate Flooding
Big River at Byrnesville, MO
Bourbeuse River at Union, MO
Missouri River at Hermann, MO

Major Flooding
Meramec River at...
Steelville, MO
Sullivan, MO
Pacific, MO
Eureka, MO
Valley Park, MO
Arnold, MO

Gasconade River at...
Rich Fountain, MO


To get the absolute latest and most up-to-date information on current river stages across our area, along with forecast river crests and times, visit the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. This is a great interactive tool -- just click on a city on the map, and you'll see everything you need to know. If you can't find exactly what you're looking for on the map, even more towns and cities are listed in the drop-down menus below the map.
Some rivers are dropping already, but all local waterways should be on the way down by the end of the weekend.

In the meantime, be safe -- don't drive onto roads that are covered with water!!
We've had numerous water rescues across our area already, most of them related to cars that drove into flood waters and stalled.

The Winter of 2007-2008 ... It Was A Cold One!

This Winter, on average, across the US and the globe was the coolest since 2001. While it was the coolest in recent years, it was still slightly above the normal. You can find out more from this article, click here.

So this got me thinking...let's look at our numbers here in Columbia for this Winter. By the way, to make keeping climate records easier, meteorologists consider Winter as the months of December, January and February. According to the preliminary climate numbers from Columbia, as measured at the Regional Airport, it was really only February that was below normal. So, December in Columbia posted a 1.2 degree above normal temperature. January was 3.6 degrees above normal. And as you may have guessed, February was chilly at 2.8 degrees below normal. All in all it means the three month period of Dec., Jan., and Feb averaged out to be very near normal...at least for temperatures.

How about snow and sleet and all that mess? Through December '07 and January-Februay '08, we had a total of 14.1" of snow and sleet. That's all pretty close to our average for those months in Columbia, which is around 14." For the entire winter season (December through March), we're just slightly below average in winter precip., however.

The numbers do show us why you hear so many people saying they're ready for Spring!

Severe Threat Diminishing

Hey Fellow Bloggers!

It looks like this storm system will continue to bring lots of rain to Mid-Missouri [and the rest of the Southern Plains]. This evening we will see a break in rain and then another round of heavy rainfall later into the overnight hours. The main threat of severe weather will remain to our south in Texas, this cluster of storms will move into our region and bring lots of rain. While the severe threat is much less, we will continue to see upwards of 1" of more rainfall.

Anthony

Update #1 on Monday's Severe Set - Up

Here is a revised severe threat forecast from the Storm Prediction Center thru Tuesday Morning. From Texas into the Ozark Plateau expect thunderstorms to reach severe potential tomorrow and late Monday overnight into Tuesday.

As of right now it looks like the main threats for Monday include heavy rainfall ( 1" - 2" expected), large hail and strong winds in excess of 60 mph. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible especially towards the evening hours and overnight into Tuesday.

Stay tuned and we will continue to update you with the latest changing conditions.

Your fellow weather(man) blogger,

Anthony

Spring Showers...& Thunderstorms On the Way...

Hey fellow weather bloggers!

As many of you have probably been noticing spring is roaring in and MOST DEFINITELY LIKE A LION! With warm air, you know what happens, it rises quickly and with a main supply of moisture (Gulf of Mexico), we will begin to see spring thunderstorms again. This coming week, we actually will be experiencing some spring like thunder showers Monday and Tuesday.

Here's the set-up:

As seen in the Storm Prediction Center's forecast through Tuesday morning, a slight risk of severe weather stretches from the Missouri Valley into Texas. A strong upper level low system will push into the plains Sunday night into Monday. As it does we will see plenty of rain. Some areas could see anywhere from 1" - 2" of rain. Areas in thunderstorms could pick up to 3" of rain by Tuesday afternoon when the rain is expected to come to an end. With above average ratings for our precip. so far this year, this could cause some minor stream & street flooding.

Though this risk, as of right now is around areas in Ozarks, this could change as Monday gets closer. I wouldn't be surprised if more of our viewing region is included in the next forecast that the Storm Prediction Center issues for severe risks.

For the time being, we will see near average temperatures for the remainder of the weekend.

Stay tuned!

Anthony

A Taste of Spring!

Tonight will be another cold night across Mid-Missouri with overnight lows in the 20s. However, this cold air won't last too long. Tomorrow will be the first day of our warming trend with highs closer to average around 50 degrees. High pressure will be in control over most of the Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. This will pull warm air fromt south into our area. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday we will see some very pleasant conditions here in Mid-Missouri.

The next chance of rain will move in on Wednesday night into Thursday. Even after the passage of a cold front then, our temperatures are not going to drop off terribly bad afterwards. Thursday and Friday, our temperatures will hold steady near average, with highs in the 50s.

Let us know what you think of our new blog spot!

Anthony

Strange Snowstorm...

Tuesday March 4th was the biggest snow of the year in St. Louis with 10" officically at Lambert airport (the official measuring station for the St. Louis area).

What caused the high snowfall amounts in St. Louis was a heavy snow band that set up over the area most of the mid morning and afternoon. These bands are thin ribbons where the heaviest snow falls and even thunder was reported at times. There was more than one band, as you can see from the map below made by the National Weather Service. Some spots in the heaviest band had 9"-12" of snow. However, there was a VERY sharp drop off in snowfall outside of the heavy band. For example, Ellisville in Western St. Louis County reported 10.5" of snow. But If you were to travel just 8 miles Northwest to Weldon Spring, in St. Charles County, the snow was only 3.5". It was all about being in the band of heavy snow or being out- that was the difference between a few inches and nearly a foot of snow!

Another fairly impressive storm system is already in the works this morning across the southern plains states and will work to produce heavy amounts of snow in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee and the Ohio River Valley through the next 36 hours. Thankfully (for those who are tired of winter and are ready to move onto spring), this storm will stay far enough south of Mid-Missouri that we won't see any accumulating snow, but just a few flurries on Friday.

Looking ahead into next week, the upper-level air pattern will become more zonal (west to east) and temperatures should begin to moderate just a bit ... at least to seasonal readings. Bring on spring!!