The Start Of Your Work Week

Good Evening Mid MO!

Ok, after two hours of looking at the latest model runs and data coming into the weather center, I have adjusted the forecast from last night slightly. Here are my thoughts on this approaching system.

For tonight, rain is moving in from the Southern viewing area currently. This looks to stay mostly rain during the overnight hours as temperatures stay above the freezing mark. Most of the precipitation will stay South of Highway 70. Not saying it can't travel further North, but the bulk will stay to the South.

As we approach the early morning hours, my thoughts are that temperatures will fall close to the freezing mark. This will change the precipitation over to a wintry mix (rain/snow/sleet). This doesnt look to last for long though. We may pick up on a little slushy snowfall, but it is not looking like it will be sticking to the roadways seeing as they will be wet from the rain, and still warm enough to melt whatever hits it. Roadways will still be wet for your morning commute so do allow for some extra travel time.

Once we get out of the morning hours, temperatures look to warm back into the upper 30s and lower 40s for the afternoon. This will leave us with rain, which will melt any of the slush that may be on the ground. This all looks to move out by the early afternoon, and skies will gradually begin to break up the cloud cover.

Keep it right here to KOMU 8 News for the latest updates in case anything changes. Eric Aldrich will be here in the morning to update you on the latest weather information as well. Be sure and check our website at komu.com. You can also follow us for the latest tweets of the weather forecast:

Michelle Bogowith - @MBogowith

Eric Aldrich - @komuEric

A Historic Winter Storm..

A very powerful and historic winter storm is taking aim on the region and that is the obvious focus for today's blog.

Today's weather will be mild compared to the events that will occur from Tuesday through Wednesday. Clouds will stick around the region today and eventually, we'll get some light freezing drizzle/rain later this afternoon. Roads will become slick through the evening rush hour and eventually, the precipitation will come to an end late tonight. Highs today will climb into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Late tonight (after midnight), we'll get another round of light wintry precipitation - mainly drizzle, sleet and light snow. This precipitation will make roads slick late tonight and early tomorrow morning. By 8am Tuesday, expect an inch or two of sleet/snow accumulation.

**After 10am Tuesday, travel will become IMPOSSIBLE!** For everyone's safety, it is recommended to just stay home on Tuesday to avoid getting stranded in the near white-out conditions. Because of the thundersnow potential, snowfall rates of up to 1" to 2" per hour will be common on Tuesday. Snowfall amounts by late evening/early Wednesday morning will be between 12" and 16."




Once the snow comes to an end on Wednesday, significant wind (North 15-30 mph) will create blowing and drifting snow and snow drifts will easily reach the 3'-4' range, especially in rural and open areas. This will send wind chills well below zero, we are looking at them around -20 degrees.

The bottom line is this: A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

In addition to the snow...strong northerly winds of 25 to 35 mph will create near blizzard conditions Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night...with significant blowing and drifting snow. Travel will become difficult to near impossible...and the combination of heavy snow and wind may lead to power outages.

In the wake of this snow storm...an arctic air mass will overspread the region...sending temperatures well below zero by midweek...along with dangerously cold wind chills. Given the lasting impacts of the winter storm...persons should make sure they have an adequate supply of food and medication...as well as an alternate heat source should electrical power become unavailable. Please be safe out there everyone!

As always, you can get up-to-date weather information and weather related closings on www.komu.com.

Follow the First Alert Weather Team on Twitter:
Dave Schmidt - @KOMUDopplerDave
Eric Aldrich - @KOMUEric
Michelle Bogowith - @MBogowith

Also, for any closings you can follow @komuclosings on Twitter!

The Approaching Winter Storm

Hello All! After crazy weather with measurable snowfall amounts early last week, it seems that another winter storm is brewing.

Our attention now turns toward a new storm system that will likely produce accumulating snowfall and colder temperatures for Mid-Missouri on Wednesday evening into Thursday. It is interesting to note here that this storm system looks very similar to the storm system that moved through the region last week (Monday - Tuesday). Hence, the snowfall amounts and other characteristics of this storm will be of some resemblance.

At this point, it looks like snow will begin late Wednesday afternoon/evening and continue throughout the morning hours on Thursday. Snowfall amounts look to be in the 3"-7" range by the time the snow winds down on Thursday morning/afternoon.

After that, temperatures will drop quickly, and we'll be frigid through the weekend. Highs Friday in the upper teens, and lower 20s for Saturday and Sunday. At least we will be precip free.

You can always follow the First Alert Weather Team on Twitter at: KOMUDopplerDave, komuEric and MBogowith. Additionally, up-to-date and interactive maps are available at www.komu.com/weather

Christmas Holiday Travel Plans?

Good Morning All!

For your Thurday afternoon, we are looking at a mostly cloudy sky with highs reaching into the middle 30s. Winds will be out of the East at 5-10 mph. Tonight, our winter weather storm looks to move in. Temperatures drop off into the middle and upper 20s. We will be mostly cloudy with rain changing over to a wintry mix and eventually snow. If you were wishing for a White Christmas, you will see it granted! Details below..

Travel plans in the next few days? Here's a look ahead..

Things still look a little tricky once we hit Thursday night into Friday. I have been keeping my eye on the winter weather system that will be pushing into the area overnight. The event will start off at a rain event sometime around midnight, turning into a freezing rain/sleet event during the overnight hours Thursday. This will cause icy conditions overnight. This is going to make for SLICK roadways Thursday night into Friday morning.

On top of that, the latest weather discussion and models are showing that we will see this change over to a snow event by early Friday morning, around 3am. We will see accumulation, latest model runs show that we will see 2-4" accumulate once all is said and done.

If you live off to the Southwest, around the Lake of the Ozarks or plan on traveling there, you will be seeing more of a wintry mix. This will make for messy roadways. If you must travel late on Thursday evening or Friday morning, allow for extra time, slow down, and take it easy out on those roads.

Any changes that will come up, make sure you join Dave Schmidt for the latest forecast toinght on KOMU 8 News at 5,6, 9 & 10. I will be back in the morning tomorrow updating you on the latest weather conditions and what to expect on those roadways as well starting at 4:30.

For the most up-to-date information be sure and check out our website at KOMU.COM for the latest on the Winter Weather situation. The Live Doppler 8 First Alert Weather team will continue to bring you the most accurate information and update you when more information becomes available to keep you and your family safe this Holiday.

Have a safe and Happy Holiday!

Traveling for the Thanksgiving Holiday?

Today is a big travel day for a lot of people and that will be the focus for this blog on your Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region throughout the day as a warm front lifts north out of Arkansas. A cold front moves through the region tonight and QUICKLY drops temperatures into the 20s for overnight lows. In some locations (mainly along I-44), some rain could switch over to a rain/snow/sleet mix before coming to an end on Thursday morning. With surface temperatures above freezing, accumulations will not be an issue.

Weather Threats for Wednesday:

SEVERE WEATHER - There will be a slight risk for severe weather across the region today as a strong low pressure system and trailing cold front move through. The best opportunity for severe weather will be found across SOUTHERN MISSOURI this afternoon into this evening. The main severe weather risks include DAMAGING WINDS and SMALL HAIL. Initially, there will be a low threat for isolated tornadoes, but that threat is low at this time. MID-MISSOURI could see a few scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, but an organized severe outbreak for the KOMU viewing area remains LOW at this time.

WINTER WEATHER - As mentioned above, there will be a LIMITED threat for some frozen precipitation tonight as a strong cold front sweeps through the region. If the precipitation can hang around long enough, there could be a switchover from rain to light freezing rain or sleet (possibly some snow, too...) late tonight and early on Thursday morning. The best location for this to occur would be along and south of I-44, although, winter-type precipitation could occur as far north as US 24. Regardless, surface temperatures remain warm, so accumulations aren't going to be an issue (except for some grassy surfaces).

**For up-to-date weather information, hourly forecasts for your hometown, and a detailed look at precipitation types using Live Doppler 8 First Alert Radar, please visit Live Doppler 8 Interactive Radar **

A Look Ahead to November

So now that we have closed out the month of October and moved on into November, it is time to take a look at the Climate Prediction Center's outlook for precipitation and temperatures for November. You can take a look for yourself as I go through the predictions at http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/.




After seeing an above average month temperature wise and below average precipitation wise for October, the CPC is expecting more of the same for the month of November. Note that the majority of the Central United States looks to be above average temperature wise. The Pacific Northwest looks to be above average precipitation wise, while the majority of the Southern states on into the Central Midwest looks to be dry.

Why is this? Compared to last year, it seems we are completely opposite of where we were. Well a big part of this has to do with El Nino/La Nina. Last year we were in an El Nino phase, this year we are moving into a La Nina phase. This will cool the waters in the Eastern Pacific and warm the waters in the Western Pacific. The predictions for November follow the pattern as seen below in the diagrams.

Notice for La Nina, conditions will be cool and wet in the PAC Northwest and warm and dry in the South/Central United States. This is the typical pattern we see during these conditions. We shall see if this proves to be true for the upcoming month.

Stay tuned for my next blog. I will be looking closely at what we can expect for the winter months ahead. There seems to be some disagreement between the Farmers Almanac, the CPC, and my grad school professors so I will dissect what I know and give you the information to make your own conclusions and weather guesses!

Homecoming Weekend Weather

Alright, whether you want to hear this or not, this is what the latest model runs are saying. I know we have been talking about this Low pressure system moving in from the Southwest. Like you, I have been keeping my fingers crossed, hoping and wishing that it would just go away. Well, it hasn't gone away and this is my latest prediction.

At this point in time, if you are planning to head to MU's campus on Friday night for House Decs, it looks to be dry. I don't think we will see any rain showers for the evening. But temperatures are going to drop. We will most likely fall into the lower 60s and upper 50s. So, you will probably want to grab a jacket, fleece, or hoodie if you will be out and about on Friday night.

For those of you heading to ESPN's Game Day coverage, here is what I have for you. The showers and thunderstorms will start to build in during the early morning hours on Saturday. They appear to start around 3am and linger until about 9/10 am. Bring your rain gear for the morning hours and dress in layers. Cool weather with rain is never a good combination!

It appears that we will get a break from the rain during the middle of the day. So if you planned on coming out for the parade that will be starting at noon, I think we should be dry during this time. Tailgates during the afternoon are look fairly dry as well but then as the atmosphere recharges, we will not be out of the woods just yet.

The low level jet is going to be streaming in lots of moisture and since we will be in the warm sector during the day, that will allow for the re-development of showers and thunderstorms within the unstable atmosphere. Temperatures will reach into the 70s.

As far as game time is concerned, I think we should just be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. It looks like we will see some more showers and thunderstorms during the early into late evening hours, just in time for kickoff. Have your rain gear with you because this rain will be scattered about in nature. Not everyone is going to get soaked, it will not be a complete wash out.

That is what things look like at this point in time. I will try to update this blog tomorrow when we have more information that is even more precise than what I have to work with today. Just know if I had any real power over the weather, I would have made this forecast perfect for this weekend.. unfortunately I don't.